Over/Under 2.5 Goals Strategy

All English Football — Over 2.5 Goals Strategy | 17 October 2026

Saturday 17 October 2026 · 71 scheduled fixtures checked · 39 league games + 32 FA Cup qualifiers · All times BST

This expands today’s Championship-only analysis to every English fixture returned by the connected subscribed-competition feed. Coverage is five Premier League, eleven Championship, eleven League One, twelve League Two and thirty-two FA Cup fourth qualifying-round matches. It is not an inventory of every non-subscribed English competition. No different date or competition is substituted.

Seven league fixtures meet the initial statistical screen. No final PBT bet or accumulator is approved. The supplied Over 2.5 strategy requires three or more regulation-time goals, final scores of 80+ for main selections and 85+ for accumulator legs, plus a verified price edge and team-news checks. Historical percentages below are not win probabilities. Cup goal markets must be checked for 90-minute settlement; extra-time goals are not assumed to count.

Data snapshot: FootyStats date feed retrieved 17 October 2026 at 11:52:26 BST, followed by all 15 season pages across five competitions and match details for all 71 fixtures. Historical inputs include only completed games before 00:00 BST today. Match-score totals and duplicate IDs were checked. The starting-XI arrays were checked separately; feed absence is not evidence that official teams have not been announced.

Initial statistical shortlist

Ordered by the average of both teams’ season Over 2.5 rates, then their latest-five rates, then combined venue goal average. This is a transparent descriptive order, not a new FIS formula or a ranking of verified value. A match enters this screen only if both season rates are at least 60%, both recent-five rates are at least 40%, and no numeric rejection filter is triggered. These are screening choices drawn from the strategy’s preferred profile, not sufficient approval criteria.

Screen order	Fixture	Season O2.5 H/A	Recent-five H/A	Venue AVG	Over quote	Break-even
1	Newcastle United v Aston Villa	83.3% / 66.7%	80.0% / 60.0%	3.33	1.62	61.7%
2	Swansea City v West Ham United	60.0% / 80.0%	80.0% / 80.0%	3.00	1.74	57.5%
3	Derby County v Stoke City	60.0% / 80.0%	40.0% / 80.0%	3.00	1.94	51.5%
4	Manchester City v Ipswich Town	66.7% / 66.7%	60.0% / 60.0%	4.17	1.33	75.2%
5	Southampton v Bolton Wanderers	60.0% / 70.0%	60.0% / 80.0%	4.00	1.40	71.4%
6	Middlesbrough v Cardiff City	70.0% / 60.0%	80.0% / 60.0%	3.20	1.36	73.5%
7	Stockport County v Bromley	66.7% / 62.5%	60.0% / 80.0%	4.22	1.37	73.0%

Price matters: Middlesbrough–Cardiff’s 1.36 quote requires 73.53% to break even; Man City–Ipswich at 1.33 needs 75.19%; Stockport–Bromley at 1.37 needs 72.99%. Historical goal rates cannot establish those independent probabilities. Derby–Stoke’s longer 1.94 price requires 51.55%, but Derby’s weak attack remains a risk.

Newcastle–Villa leads this descriptive order, but only six league matches per team and three venue matches support it; the prematch feed-xG sum is just 2.34. Newcastle’s official briefing reports Anthony Elanga still unavailable, with Bazoumana Touré’s availability uncertain and Jacob Ramsey not yet back in group training. Attacking availability therefore needs review before any promotion. Source: official Newcastle pre-match briefing.

Middlesbrough–Cardiff retains the stronger all-round research case from the earlier Championship report: both recent rates are 60%+, the venue goal average is 3.20 and the feed-xG sum is 3.67. Southampton–Bolton and Stockport–Bromley show high venue goal volumes. Swansea’s low home conceding average and Derby’s weak home attack remain important counter-signals. No shortlist row is a final selection.

Competition coverage and goal environment

Competition	Today’s fixtures	Completed prior matches	Prior Over 2.5 rate	Baseline used
Premier League	5	60	56.7%	Current-season league
League One	11	103	54.4%	Current-season league
Championship	11	120	63.3%	Current-season league
League Two	12	114	43.0%	Current-season league
FA Cup fourth qualifying round	32	703	65.0%	Cup history only; not a comparable league baseline

Premier League — all 5 fixtures

Fixture / BST	Season O2.5 H/A	Recent ≤5 O2.5 H/A	Venue O2.5 H/A	Venue AVG	Over price	Decision
Everton v Chelsea / 12:30	33.3% / 100.0%	40.0% / 100.0%	33.3% / 100.0%	3.00	1.62	Mixed profile / watch only
Brentford v Liverpool / 15:00	66.7% / 50.0%	60.0% / 40.0%	66.7% / 33.3%	2.50	1.53	Mixed profile / watch only
Fulham v Hull City / 15:00	50.0% / 50.0%	40.0% / 60.0%	66.7% / 66.7%	3.33	1.70	Mixed profile / watch only
Manchester City v Ipswich Town / 15:00	66.7% / 66.7%	60.0% / 60.0%	66.7% / 66.7%	4.17	1.33	Statistical watchlist
Newcastle United v Aston Villa / 17:30	83.3% / 66.7%	80.0% / 60.0%	100.0% / 66.7%	3.33	1.62	Statistical watchlist

Everton v Chelsea · Mixed profile / watch only
Risks: at least one season Over rate is below the preferred 60%; the venue Over rates are sharply uneven; fewer than ten league games for at least one team.
Samples H/A: overall 6/6; recent 5/5; venue 3/3. Venue goals for/conceded: 1.67/0.67 home; 1.33/2.33 away. Venue scoring 2+: 66.7% / 33.3%; conceding 2+: 33.3% / 100.0%; BTTS: 33.3% / 66.7%. Prematch feed-xG sum: 3.46.

Brentford v Liverpool · Mixed profile / watch only
Risks: at least one season Over rate is below the preferred 60%; fewer than ten league games for at least one team.
Samples H/A: overall 6/6; recent 5/5; venue 3/3. Venue goals for/conceded: 2.33/0.33 home; 1.67/0.67 away. Venue scoring 2+: 66.7% / 66.7%; conceding 2+: 0.0% / 33.3%; BTTS: 33.3% / 33.3%. Prematch feed-xG sum: 3.56.

Fulham v Hull City · Mixed profile / watch only
Risks: at least one season Over rate is below the preferred 60%; fewer than ten league games for at least one team.
Samples H/A: overall 6/6; recent 5/5; venue 3/3. Venue goals for/conceded: 1.67/2.33 home; 1.33/1.33 away. Venue scoring 2+: 66.7% / 33.3%; conceding 2+: 66.7% / 66.7%; BTTS: 100.0% / 66.7%. Prematch feed-xG sum: 3.31.

Manchester City v Ipswich Town · Statistical watchlist
Both season goal profiles and the basic recent-form screen align; verify the route to the third goal and price. Risks: fewer than ten league games for at least one team.
Samples H/A: overall 6/6; recent 5/5; venue 3/3. Venue goals for/conceded: 2.67/1.33 home; 1.67/2.67 away. Venue scoring 2+: 66.7% / 66.7%; conceding 2+: 33.3% / 66.7%; BTTS: 66.7% / 66.7%. Prematch feed-xG sum: 3.08.

Newcastle United v Aston Villa · Statistical watchlist
Both season goal profiles and the basic recent-form screen align; verify the route to the third goal and price. Risks: at least one team fails to score in 40%+ of its venue sample; the feed-xG sum provides limited support for a third goal; fewer than ten league games for at least one team.
Samples H/A: overall 6/6; recent 5/5; venue 3/3. Venue goals for/conceded: 2.00/1.67 home; 1.00/2.00 away. Venue scoring 2+: 100.0% / 33.3%; conceding 2+: 66.7% / 66.7%; BTTS: 100.0% / 33.3%. Prematch feed-xG sum: 2.34.

Championship — all 11 fixtures

Fixture / BST	Season O2.5 H/A	Recent ≤5 O2.5 H/A	Venue O2.5 H/A	Venue AVG	Over price	Decision
Middlesbrough v Cardiff City / 12:30	70.0% / 60.0%	80.0% / 60.0%	80.0% / 60.0%	3.20	1.36	Statistical watchlist
Millwall v Lincoln City / 12:30	70.0% / 50.0%	60.0% / 60.0%	80.0% / 40.0%	2.40	1.75	Mixed profile / watch only
Watford v Charlton Athletic / 12:30	50.0% / 50.0%	80.0% / 40.0%	80.0% / 80.0%	3.20	1.86	Mixed profile / watch only
Birmingham City v Queens Park Rangers / 15:00	70.0% / 50.0%	80.0% / 40.0%	80.0% / 40.0%	2.90	1.87	Mixed profile / watch only
Bristol City v Sheffield United / 15:00	50.0% / 70.0%	20.0% / 80.0%	20.0% / 80.0%	2.30	1.80	Reject from main list
Derby County v Stoke City / 15:00	60.0% / 80.0%	40.0% / 80.0%	60.0% / 80.0%	3.00	1.94	Statistical watchlist
Norwich City v Portsmouth / 15:00	80.0% / 55.6%	80.0% / 40.0%	80.0% / 50.0%	2.90	1.67	Mixed profile / watch only
Southampton v Bolton Wanderers / 15:00	60.0% / 70.0%	60.0% / 80.0%	80.0% / 80.0%	4.00	1.40	Statistical watchlist
Swansea City v West Ham United / 15:00	60.0% / 80.0%	80.0% / 80.0%	40.0% / 80.0%	3.00	1.74	Statistical watchlist
West Bromwich Albion v Blackburn Rovers / 15:00	40.0% / 80.0%	20.0% / 80.0%	20.0% / 60.0%	2.20	1.96	Reject from main list
Wrexham v Preston North End / 15:00	50.0% / 70.0%	60.0% / 60.0%	60.0% / 80.0%	2.80	1.79	Mixed profile / watch only

Middlesbrough v Cardiff City · Statistical watchlist
Both season goal profiles and the basic recent-form screen align; verify the route to the third goal and price. Risks: at least one team fails to score in 40%+ of its venue sample.
Samples H/A: overall 10/10; recent 5/5; venue 5/5. Venue goals for/conceded: 2.40/1.40 home; 0.80/1.80 away. Venue scoring 2+: 80.0% / 20.0%; conceding 2+: 40.0% / 80.0%; BTTS: 80.0% / 60.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: 3.67.

Millwall v Lincoln City · Mixed profile / watch only
Risks: at least one season Over rate is below the preferred 60%; the venue Over rates are sharply uneven; at least one team fails to score in 40%+ of its venue sample; the feed-xG sum provides limited support for a third goal.
Samples H/A: overall 10/10; recent 5/5; venue 5/5. Venue goals for/conceded: 1.80/1.20 home; 0.80/1.00 away. Venue scoring 2+: 60.0% / 0.0%; conceding 2+: 40.0% / 40.0%; BTTS: 20.0% / 20.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: 2.52.

Watford v Charlton Athletic · Mixed profile / watch only
Risks: at least one season Over rate is below the preferred 60%; the feed-xG sum provides limited support for a third goal.
Samples H/A: overall 10/10; recent 5/5; venue 5/5. Venue goals for/conceded: 1.20/1.80 home; 1.20/2.20 away. Venue scoring 2+: 40.0% / 40.0%; conceding 2+: 40.0% / 60.0%; BTTS: 80.0% / 80.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: 2.37.

Birmingham City v Queens Park Rangers · Mixed profile / watch only
Risks: at least one season Over rate is below the preferred 60%; the venue Over rates are sharply uneven.
Samples H/A: overall 10/10; recent 5/5; venue 5/5. Venue goals for/conceded: 2.20/1.40 home; 1.40/0.80 away. Venue scoring 2+: 80.0% / 40.0%; conceding 2+: 60.0% / 0.0%; BTTS: 80.0% / 80.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: 3.00.

Bristol City v Sheffield United · Reject from main list
Filter findings: Recent-5 below 40%; no exceptional-evidence override verified; Venue total-goal average below 2.4. Risks: at least one season Over rate is below the preferred 60%; the venue Over rates are sharply uneven; at least one team fails to score in 40%+ of its venue sample; the feed-xG sum provides limited support for a third goal.
Samples H/A: overall 10/10; recent 5/5; venue 5/5. Venue goals for/conceded: 0.60/1.00 home; 1.40/1.60 away. Venue scoring 2+: 20.0% / 60.0%; conceding 2+: 20.0% / 60.0%; BTTS: 20.0% / 80.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: 2.54.

Derby County v Stoke City · Statistical watchlist
Both season goal profiles and the basic recent-form screen align; verify the route to the third goal and price. Risks: at least one team fails to score in 40%+ of its venue sample.
Samples H/A: overall 10/10; recent 5/5; venue 5/5. Venue goals for/conceded: 0.80/1.80 home; 1.40/2.00 away. Venue scoring 2+: 20.0% / 40.0%; conceding 2+: 60.0% / 40.0%; BTTS: 60.0% / 100.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: 2.90.

Norwich City v Portsmouth · Mixed profile / watch only
Risks: at least one season Over rate is below the preferred 60%; at least one team fails to score in 40%+ of its venue sample; fewer than ten league games for at least one team.
Samples H/A: overall 10/9; recent 5/5; venue 5/4. Venue goals for/conceded: 2.00/1.80 home; 1.00/1.00 away. Venue scoring 2+: 60.0% / 25.0%; conceding 2+: 40.0% / 25.0%; BTTS: 80.0% / 50.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: 3.10.

Southampton v Bolton Wanderers · Statistical watchlist
Both season goal profiles and the basic recent-form screen align; verify the route to the third goal and price. Risks: at least one team fails to score in 40%+ of its venue sample.
Samples H/A: overall 10/10; recent 5/5; venue 5/5. Venue goals for/conceded: 3.20/0.80 home; 1.80/2.20 away. Venue scoring 2+: 80.0% / 60.0%; conceding 2+: 0.0% / 60.0%; BTTS: 80.0% / 60.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: 2.73.

Swansea City v West Ham United · Statistical watchlist
Both season goal profiles and the basic recent-form screen align; verify the route to the third goal and price. Risks: the venue Over rates are sharply uneven; at least one team fails to score in 40%+ of its venue sample.
Samples H/A: overall 10/10; recent 5/5; venue 5/5. Venue goals for/conceded: 1.40/0.40 home; 2.80/1.40 away. Venue scoring 2+: 60.0% / 80.0%; conceding 2+: 0.0% / 60.0%; BTTS: 40.0% / 80.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: 3.29.

West Bromwich Albion v Blackburn Rovers · Reject from main list
Filter findings: Recent-5 below 40%; no exceptional-evidence override verified; Venue total-goal average below 2.4. Risks: at least one season Over rate is below the preferred 60%; the venue Over rates are sharply uneven; the feed-xG sum provides limited support for a third goal.
Samples H/A: overall 10/10; recent 5/5; venue 5/5. Venue goals for/conceded: 1.20/0.80 home; 1.20/1.20 away. Venue scoring 2+: 20.0% / 40.0%; conceding 2+: 0.0% / 60.0%; BTTS: 60.0% / 60.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: 2.48.

Wrexham v Preston North End · Mixed profile / watch only
Risks: at least one season Over rate is below the preferred 60%; at least one team fails to score in 40%+ of its venue sample; the feed-xG sum provides limited support for a third goal.
Samples H/A: overall 10/10; recent 5/5; venue 5/5. Venue goals for/conceded: 1.20/1.40 home; 0.80/2.20 away. Venue scoring 2+: 20.0% / 20.0%; conceding 2+: 40.0% / 80.0%; BTTS: 100.0% / 60.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: 2.50.

League One — all 11 fixtures

Fixture / BST	Season O2.5 H/A	Recent ≤5 O2.5 H/A	Venue O2.5 H/A	Venue AVG	Over price	Decision
Milton Keynes Dons v Luton Town / 12:30	50.0% / 62.5%	60.0% / 40.0%	25.0% / 100.0%	4.00	1.64	Mixed profile / watch only
Peterborough United v Burton Albion / 12:30	44.4% / 70.0%	40.0% / 60.0%	50.0% / 60.0%	2.10	1.55	Reject from main list
Barnsley v Cambridge United / 15:00	62.5% / 55.6%	80.0% / 40.0%	50.0% / 50.0%	2.88	1.60	Mixed profile / watch only
Bradford City v Stevenage / 15:00	11.1% / 50.0%	0.0% / 40.0%	25.0% / 25.0%	1.88	2.12	Reject from main list
Leicester City v Doncaster Rovers / 15:00	50.0% / 37.5%	60.0% / 20.0%	75.0% / 50.0%	2.88	1.53	Reject from main list
Leyton Orient v Blackpool / 15:00	44.4% / 75.0%	20.0% / 80.0%	60.0% / 75.0%	2.88	1.65	Reject from main list
Plymouth Argyle v Huddersfield Town / 15:00	50.0% / 66.7%	60.0% / 60.0%	60.0% / 60.0%	2.50	1.64	Mixed profile / watch only
Sheffield Wednesday v AFC Wimbledon / 15:00	62.5% / 33.3%	60.0% / 20.0%	25.0% / 60.0%	2.75	1.64	Reject from main list
Stockport County v Bromley / 15:00	66.7% / 62.5%	60.0% / 80.0%	80.0% / 75.0%	4.22	1.37	Statistical watchlist
Wigan Athletic v Reading / 15:00	37.5% / 66.7%	40.0% / 60.0%	50.0% / 75.0%	3.00	1.66	Mixed profile / watch only
Wycombe Wanderers v Notts County / 15:00	66.7% / 37.5%	80.0% / 20.0%	80.0% / 25.0%	3.25	1.81	Reject from main list

Milton Keynes Dons v Luton Town · Mixed profile / watch only
Risks: at least one season Over rate is below the preferred 60%; the venue Over rates are sharply uneven; the feed-xG sum provides limited support for a third goal; fewer than ten league games for at least one team.
Samples H/A: overall 8/8; recent 5/5; venue 4/4. Venue goals for/conceded: 0.75/1.75 home; 2.75/2.75 away. Venue scoring 2+: 0.0% / 75.0%; conceding 2+: 25.0% / 75.0%; BTTS: 75.0% / 100.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: 2.54.

Peterborough United v Burton Albion · Reject from main list
Filter findings: Venue total-goal average below 2.4. Risks: at least one season Over rate is below the preferred 60%; at least one team fails to score in 40%+ of its venue sample; the feed-xG sum provides limited support for a third goal; fewer than ten league games for at least one team.
Samples H/A: overall 9/10; recent 5/5; venue 4/5. Venue goals for/conceded: 0.75/1.25 home; 0.80/1.40 away. Venue scoring 2+: 25.0% / 20.0%; conceding 2+: 50.0% / 40.0%; BTTS: 50.0% / 40.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: 2.62.

Barnsley v Cambridge United · Mixed profile / watch only
Risks: at least one season Over rate is below the preferred 60%; fewer than ten league games for at least one team.
Samples H/A: overall 8/9; recent 5/5; venue 4/4. Venue goals for/conceded: 1.00/2.00 home; 1.50/1.25 away. Venue scoring 2+: 25.0% / 50.0%; conceding 2+: 25.0% / 25.0%; BTTS: 75.0% / 100.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: 3.17.

Bradford City v Stevenage · Reject from main list
Filter findings: Recent-5 below 40%; no exceptional-evidence override verified; Both venue Over rates below 40%; Venue total-goal average below 2.4. Risks: at least one season Over rate is below the preferred 60%; at least one team fails to score in 40%+ of its venue sample; fewer than ten league games for at least one team.
Samples H/A: overall 9/8; recent 5/5; venue 4/4. Venue goals for/conceded: 1.00/0.50 home; 1.50/0.75 away. Venue scoring 2+: 25.0% / 25.0%; conceding 2+: 25.0% / 0.0%; BTTS: 25.0% / 50.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: 2.89.

Leicester City v Doncaster Rovers · Reject from main list
Filter findings: Recent-5 below 40%; no exceptional-evidence override verified. Risks: at least one season Over rate is below the preferred 60%; fewer than ten league games for at least one team.
Samples H/A: overall 8/8; recent 5/5; venue 4/4. Venue goals for/conceded: 1.00/2.25 home; 1.25/1.25 away. Venue scoring 2+: 25.0% / 50.0%; conceding 2+: 75.0% / 50.0%; BTTS: 50.0% / 50.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: 3.08.

Leyton Orient v Blackpool · Reject from main list
Filter findings: Recent-5 below 40%; no exceptional-evidence override verified. Risks: at least one season Over rate is below the preferred 60%; the feed-xG sum provides limited support for a third goal; fewer than ten league games for at least one team.
Samples H/A: overall 9/8; recent 5/5; venue 5/4. Venue goals for/conceded: 1.00/2.00 home; 1.00/1.75 away. Venue scoring 2+: 20.0% / 25.0%; conceding 2+: 80.0% / 50.0%; BTTS: 60.0% / 75.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: 2.21.

Plymouth Argyle v Huddersfield Town · Mixed profile / watch only
Risks: at least one season Over rate is below the preferred 60%; fewer than ten league games for at least one team.
Samples H/A: overall 10/9; recent 5/5; venue 5/5. Venue goals for/conceded: 1.60/1.00 home; 1.40/1.00 away. Venue scoring 2+: 60.0% / 40.0%; conceding 2+: 20.0% / 20.0%; BTTS: 40.0% / 80.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: 3.10.

Sheffield Wednesday v AFC Wimbledon · Reject from main list
Filter findings: Recent-5 below 40%; no exceptional-evidence override verified. Risks: at least one season Over rate is below the preferred 60%; at least one team fails to score in 40%+ of its venue sample; fewer than ten league games for at least one team.
Samples H/A: overall 8/9; recent 5/5; venue 4/5. Venue goals for/conceded: 1.75/0.75 home; 1.00/2.00 away. Venue scoring 2+: 25.0% / 20.0%; conceding 2+: 25.0% / 60.0%; BTTS: 25.0% / 60.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: 2.99.

Stockport County v Bromley · Statistical watchlist
Both season goal profiles and the basic recent-form screen align; verify the route to the third goal and price. Risks: fewer than ten league games for at least one team.
Samples H/A: overall 9/8; recent 5/5; venue 5/4. Venue goals for/conceded: 2.60/1.60 home; 1.50/2.75 away. Venue scoring 2+: 60.0% / 50.0%; conceding 2+: 40.0% / 75.0%; BTTS: 80.0% / 75.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: 3.38.

Wigan Athletic v Reading · Mixed profile / watch only
Risks: at least one season Over rate is below the preferred 60%; at least one team fails to score in 40%+ of its venue sample; fewer than ten league games for at least one team.
Samples H/A: overall 8/9; recent 5/5; venue 4/4. Venue goals for/conceded: 0.75/2.00 home; 2.00/1.25 away. Venue scoring 2+: 25.0% / 50.0%; conceding 2+: 50.0% / 50.0%; BTTS: 25.0% / 75.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: 3.09.

Wycombe Wanderers v Notts County · Reject from main list
Filter findings: Recent-5 below 40%; no exceptional-evidence override verified. Risks: at least one season Over rate is below the preferred 60%; the venue Over rates are sharply uneven; fewer than ten league games for at least one team.
Samples H/A: overall 9/8; recent 5/5; venue 5/4. Venue goals for/conceded: 1.60/2.40 home; 1.00/1.50 away. Venue scoring 2+: 40.0% / 25.0%; conceding 2+: 80.0% / 50.0%; BTTS: 100.0% / 75.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: 2.77.

League Two — all 12 fixtures

Fixture / BST	Season O2.5 H/A	Recent ≤5 O2.5 H/A	Venue O2.5 H/A	Venue AVG	Over price	Decision
Fleetwood Town v Rotherham United / 12:30	30.0% / 50.0%	40.0% / 40.0%	20.0% / 40.0%	1.90	1.83	Reject from main list
Shrewsbury Town v Bristol Rovers / 12:30	40.0% / 50.0%	40.0% / 60.0%	40.0% / 60.0%	2.80	1.99	Mixed profile / watch only
Accrington Stanley v Gillingham / 15:00	50.0% / 50.0%	20.0% / 60.0%	60.0% / 60.0%	3.00	1.88	Reject from main list
Colchester United v Exeter City / 15:00	44.4% / 10.0%	40.0% / 0.0%	25.0% / 20.0%	1.70	1.93	Reject from main list
Crewe Alexandra v Rochdale / 15:00	20.0% / 50.0%	20.0% / 20.0%	40.0% / 40.0%	2.20	1.80	Reject from main list
Grimsby Town v Northampton Town / 15:00	50.0% / 0.0%	40.0% / 0.0%	40.0% / 0.0%	2.08	1.79	Reject from main list
Newport County v York City / 15:00	50.0% / 55.6%	20.0% / 40.0%	60.0% / 25.0%	2.67	1.67	Reject from main list
Oldham Athletic v Cheltenham Town / 15:00	44.4% / 70.0%	40.0% / 40.0%	60.0% / 60.0%	2.80	1.72	Mixed profile / watch only
Port Vale v Chesterfield / 15:00	12.5% / 60.0%	20.0% / 80.0%	0.0% / 80.0%	1.90	1.79	Reject from main list
Salford City v Crawley Town / 15:00	40.0% / 50.0%	40.0% / 60.0%	20.0% / 50.0%	2.20	1.40	Reject from main list
Swindon Town v Walsall / 15:00	50.0% / 33.3%	20.0% / 0.0%	60.0% / 40.0%	2.50	1.66	Reject from main list
Tranmere Rovers v Barnet / 15:00	30.0% / 87.5%	20.0% / 80.0%	20.0% / 75.0%	3.20	1.65	Reject from main list

Fleetwood Town v Rotherham United · Reject from main list
Filter findings: Venue total-goal average below 2.4. Risks: at least one season Over rate is below the preferred 60%; at least one team fails to score in 40%+ of its venue sample.
Samples H/A: overall 10/10; recent 5/5; venue 5/5. Venue goals for/conceded: 1.00/0.80 home; 0.80/1.20 away. Venue scoring 2+: 20.0% / 20.0%; conceding 2+: 20.0% / 40.0%; BTTS: 60.0% / 40.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: 2.92.

Shrewsbury Town v Bristol Rovers · Mixed profile / watch only
Risks: at least one season Over rate is below the preferred 60%; at least one team fails to score in 40%+ of its venue sample.
Samples H/A: overall 10/10; recent 5/5; venue 5/5. Venue goals for/conceded: 1.20/1.20 home; 1.00/2.20 away. Venue scoring 2+: 40.0% / 40.0%; conceding 2+: 40.0% / 80.0%; BTTS: 40.0% / 40.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: 2.71.

Accrington Stanley v Gillingham · Reject from main list
Filter findings: Recent-5 below 40%; no exceptional-evidence override verified. Risks: at least one season Over rate is below the preferred 60%; at least one team fails to score in 40%+ of its venue sample; the feed-xG sum provides limited support for a third goal.
Samples H/A: overall 10/10; recent 5/5; venue 5/5. Venue goals for/conceded: 1.80/1.20 home; 1.80/1.20 away. Venue scoring 2+: 80.0% / 40.0%; conceding 2+: 60.0% / 20.0%; BTTS: 60.0% / 60.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: 2.68.

Colchester United v Exeter City · Reject from main list
Filter findings: Recent-5 below 40%; no exceptional-evidence override verified; Both venue Over rates below 40%; Venue total-goal average below 2.4. Risks: at least one season Over rate is below the preferred 60%; at least one team fails to score in 40%+ of its venue sample; the feed-xG sum provides limited support for a third goal; fewer than ten league games for at least one team.
Samples H/A: overall 9/10; recent 5/5; venue 4/5. Venue goals for/conceded: 1.25/0.75 home; 0.40/1.00 away. Venue scoring 2+: 25.0% / 0.0%; conceding 2+: 0.0% / 20.0%; BTTS: 75.0% / 20.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: 2.39.

Crewe Alexandra v Rochdale · Reject from main list
Filter findings: Recent-5 below 40%; no exceptional-evidence override verified; Venue total-goal average below 2.4. Risks: at least one season Over rate is below the preferred 60%; at least one team fails to score in 40%+ of its venue sample; the feed-xG sum provides limited support for a third goal.
Samples H/A: overall 10/10; recent 5/5; venue 5/5. Venue goals for/conceded: 1.60/1.00 home; 0.60/1.20 away. Venue scoring 2+: 40.0% / 20.0%; conceding 2+: 20.0% / 20.0%; BTTS: 80.0% / 40.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: 2.32.

Grimsby Town v Northampton Town · Reject from main list
Filter findings: Recent-5 below 40%; no exceptional-evidence override verified; Venue total-goal average below 2.4. Risks: at least one season Over rate is below the preferred 60%; the venue Over rates are sharply uneven; at least one team fails to score in 40%+ of its venue sample; fewer than ten league games for at least one team.
Samples H/A: overall 10/8; recent 5/5; venue 5/4. Venue goals for/conceded: 1.60/0.80 home; 0.50/1.25 away. Venue scoring 2+: 60.0% / 0.0%; conceding 2+: 40.0% / 25.0%; BTTS: 40.0% / 50.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: 3.00.

Newport County v York City · Reject from main list
Filter findings: Recent-5 below 40%; no exceptional-evidence override verified. Risks: at least one season Over rate is below the preferred 60%; fewer than ten league games for at least one team.
Samples H/A: overall 10/9; recent 5/5; venue 5/4. Venue goals for/conceded: 1.80/0.80 home; 1.00/1.75 away. Venue scoring 2+: 60.0% / 25.0%; conceding 2+: 20.0% / 50.0%; BTTS: 60.0% / 75.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: 3.09.

Oldham Athletic v Cheltenham Town · Mixed profile / watch only
Risks: at least one season Over rate is below the preferred 60%; the feed-xG sum provides limited support for a third goal; fewer than ten league games for at least one team.
Samples H/A: overall 9/10; recent 5/5; venue 5/5. Venue goals for/conceded: 1.40/1.20 home; 1.40/1.60 away. Venue scoring 2+: 40.0% / 40.0%; conceding 2+: 40.0% / 60.0%; BTTS: 40.0% / 80.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: 2.54.

Port Vale v Chesterfield · Reject from main list
Filter findings: Recent-5 below 40%; no exceptional-evidence override verified; Venue total-goal average below 2.4. Risks: at least one season Over rate is below the preferred 60%; the venue Over rates are sharply uneven; fewer than ten league games for at least one team.
Samples H/A: overall 8/10; recent 5/5; venue 4/5. Venue goals for/conceded: 0.75/0.25 home; 1.40/1.40 away. Venue scoring 2+: 0.0% / 40.0%; conceding 2+: 0.0% / 60.0%; BTTS: 25.0% / 80.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: 3.38.

Salford City v Crawley Town · Reject from main list
Filter findings: Venue total-goal average below 2.4. Risks: at least one season Over rate is below the preferred 60%; fewer than ten league games for at least one team.
Samples H/A: overall 10/8; recent 5/5; venue 5/4. Venue goals for/conceded: 1.00/0.40 home; 1.25/1.75 away. Venue scoring 2+: 20.0% / 50.0%; conceding 2+: 0.0% / 50.0%; BTTS: 20.0% / 75.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: 3.44.

Swindon Town v Walsall · Reject from main list
Filter findings: Recent-5 below 40%; no exceptional-evidence override verified. Risks: at least one season Over rate is below the preferred 60%; the feed-xG sum provides limited support for a third goal; fewer than ten league games for at least one team.
Samples H/A: overall 10/9; recent 5/5; venue 5/5. Venue goals for/conceded: 1.80/1.00 home; 1.40/0.80 away. Venue scoring 2+: 60.0% / 40.0%; conceding 2+: 0.0% / 20.0%; BTTS: 80.0% / 60.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: 2.55.

Tranmere Rovers v Barnet · Reject from main list
Filter findings: Recent-5 below 40%; no exceptional-evidence override verified. Risks: at least one season Over rate is below the preferred 60%; the venue Over rates are sharply uneven; fewer than ten league games for at least one team.
Samples H/A: overall 10/8; recent 5/5; venue 5/4. Venue goals for/conceded: 1.60/0.80 home; 2.50/1.50 away. Venue scoring 2+: 60.0% / 75.0%; conceding 2+: 20.0% / 25.0%; BTTS: 60.0% / 100.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: 3.26.

FA Cup fourth qualifying round — all 32 fixtures

These entries use cup-only match histories for context. Many National League clubs enter at this stage and have no prior cup record; missing records are unavailable, not 0% ability or 0.00 expected goals. Their domestic league baselines and adjusted opponent comparisons were not provided by the subscribed feed. Every cup fixture remains insufficient-data research, regardless of the shown cup rate or price.

Fixture / BST	Season O2.5 H/A	Recent ≤5 O2.5 H/A	Venue O2.5 H/A	Venue AVG	Over price	Decision
Bury v Harrogate Town / 12:30	100.0% / Unavailable	100.0% / Unavailable	100.0% / Unavailable	Unavailable	1.53	Insufficient league data
AFC Rushden & Diamonds v Morecambe / 15:00	66.7% / 50.0%	60.0% / 50.0%	66.7% / Unavailable	Unavailable	1.44	Insufficient league data
Aldershot Town v Tadley Calleva / 15:00	Unavailable / 66.7%	Unavailable / 60.0%	Unavailable / 0.0%	Unavailable	1.28	Insufficient league data
Altrincham v United of Manchester / 15:00	Unavailable / 100.0%	Unavailable / 100.0%	Unavailable / 100.0%	Unavailable	1.42	Insufficient league data
Barrow v Gloucester City / 15:00	Unavailable / 50.0%	Unavailable / 50.0%	Unavailable / 66.7%	Unavailable	1.44	Insufficient league data
Bedford Town v Cray Wanderers / 15:00	100.0% / 40.0%	100.0% / 40.0%	100.0% / 50.0%	3.25	1.50	Insufficient league data
Boreham Wood v Woking / 15:00	Unavailable / Unavailable	Unavailable / Unavailable	Unavailable / Unavailable	Unavailable	1.41	Insufficient league data
Boston United v Scunthorpe United / 15:00	Unavailable / Unavailable	Unavailable / Unavailable	Unavailable / Unavailable	Unavailable	1.40	Insufficient league data
Carlisle United v Tamworth / 15:00	Unavailable / Unavailable	Unavailable / Unavailable	Unavailable / Unavailable	Unavailable	1.59	Insufficient league data
Chesham United v Forest Green Rovers / 15:00	100.0% / Unavailable	100.0% / Unavailable	100.0% / Unavailable	Unavailable	1.44	Insufficient league data
Chorley v Worcester City / 15:00	50.0% / 50.0%	50.0% / 50.0%	Unavailable / 50.0%	Unavailable	1.62	Insufficient league data
Dover Athletic v Dorking Wanderers / 15:00	100.0% / 66.7%	100.0% / 66.7%	100.0% / 100.0%	5.00	1.32	Insufficient league data
Eastleigh v Brentwood Town / 15:00	Unavailable / 75.0%	Unavailable / 75.0%	Unavailable / 50.0%	Unavailable	1.41	Insufficient league data
Fylde v Atherton Collieries / 15:00	Unavailable / 71.4%	Unavailable / 80.0%	Unavailable / 100.0%	Unavailable	1.33	Insufficient league data
Gateshead v Stafford Rangers / 15:00	Unavailable / 83.3%	Unavailable / 80.0%	Unavailable / 100.0%	Unavailable	1.44	Insufficient league data
Halifax Town v South Shields FC / 15:00	Unavailable / 50.0%	Unavailable / 50.0%	Unavailable / 0.0%	Unavailable	1.55	Insufficient league data
Harborough Town v Spennymoor Town / 15:00	50.0% / 100.0%	50.0% / 100.0%	50.0% / 100.0%	3.50	1.57	Insufficient league data
Hartlepool United v Marine FC / 15:00	Unavailable / 50.0%	Unavailable / 50.0%	Unavailable / Unavailable	Unavailable	1.59	Insufficient league data
Kidderminster Harriers v Solihull Moors / 15:00	Unavailable / Unavailable	Unavailable / Unavailable	Unavailable / Unavailable	Unavailable	1.83	Insufficient league data
Leatherhead v Yeovil Town / 15:00	33.3% / Unavailable	33.3% / Unavailable	50.0% / Unavailable	Unavailable	1.40	Insufficient league data
Leiston v Guiseley / 15:00	75.0% / 75.0%	75.0% / 75.0%	100.0% / 100.0%	4.50	1.38	Insufficient league data
Macclesfield v Anstey Nomads / 15:00	100.0% / 100.0%	100.0% / 100.0%	100.0% / 100.0%	4.25	1.40	Insufficient league data
Plymouth Parkway v Chertsey Town / 15:00	66.7% / 50.0%	66.7% / 50.0%	100.0% / 50.0%	2.75	1.46	Insufficient league data
Salisbury v Eastbourne Borough / 15:00	100.0% / 66.7%	100.0% / 66.7%	100.0% / 50.0%	4.25	1.44	Insufficient league data
Sholing v SE Døns / 15:00	33.3% / 50.0%	33.3% / 40.0%	0.0% / 75.0%	3.38	1.28	Insufficient league data
Southend United v Berkhamsted / 15:00	Unavailable / 66.7%	Unavailable / 66.7%	Unavailable / 50.0%	Unavailable	1.42	Insufficient league data
Spalding United v Alvechurch / 15:00	33.3% / 66.7%	33.3% / 66.7%	50.0% / 100.0%	3.00	1.81	Insufficient league data
Sutton United v Truro City / 15:00	Unavailable / 33.3%	Unavailable / 33.3%	Unavailable / 0.0%	Unavailable	1.81	Insufficient league data
Torquay United v Oxford City / 15:00	50.0% / 50.0%	50.0% / 50.0%	100.0% / 0.0%	4.50	1.53	Insufficient league data
Uxbridge v AFC Hornchurch / 15:00	75.0% / Unavailable	75.0% / Unavailable	100.0% / Unavailable	Unavailable	1.36	Insufficient league data
Wealdstone v Worthing / 15:00	Unavailable / Unavailable	Unavailable / Unavailable	Unavailable / Unavailable	Unavailable	1.53	Insufficient league data
Wimborne Town v Chelmsford City / 15:00	40.0% / 0.0%	40.0% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	1.25	1.89	Insufficient league data

Bury v Harrogate Town · Insufficient league data
Available cup samples: 3 / 0 overall and 3 / 0 in the relevant venue. No comparable league model or final score can be supported.
Samples H/A: overall 3/0; recent 3/0; venue 3/0. Venue goals for/conceded: 5.00/0.67 home; Unavailable/Unavailable away. Venue scoring 2+: 100.0% / Unavailable; conceding 2+: 0.0% / Unavailable; BTTS: 66.7% / Unavailable. Prematch feed-xG sum: Unavailable.

AFC Rushden & Diamonds v Morecambe · Insufficient league data
Available cup samples: 6 / 2 overall and 3 / 0 in the relevant venue. No comparable league model or final score can be supported.
Samples H/A: overall 6/2; recent 5/2; venue 3/0. Venue goals for/conceded: 2.00/1.00 home; Unavailable/Unavailable away. Venue scoring 2+: 66.7% / Unavailable; conceding 2+: 0.0% / Unavailable; BTTS: 100.0% / Unavailable. Prematch feed-xG sum: Unavailable.

Aldershot Town v Tadley Calleva · Insufficient league data
Available cup samples: 0 / 6 overall and 0 / 2 in the relevant venue. No comparable league model or final score can be supported.
Samples H/A: overall 0/6; recent 0/5; venue 0/2. Venue goals for/conceded: Unavailable/Unavailable home; 0.50/0.00 away. Venue scoring 2+: Unavailable / 0.0%; conceding 2+: Unavailable / 0.0%; BTTS: Unavailable / 0.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: Unavailable.

Altrincham v United of Manchester · Insufficient league data
Available cup samples: 0 / 3 overall and 0 / 2 in the relevant venue. No comparable league model or final score can be supported.
Samples H/A: overall 0/3; recent 0/3; venue 0/2. Venue goals for/conceded: Unavailable/Unavailable home; 4.00/0.50 away. Venue scoring 2+: Unavailable / 100.0%; conceding 2+: Unavailable / 0.0%; BTTS: Unavailable / 50.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: Unavailable.

Barrow v Gloucester City · Insufficient league data
Available cup samples: 0 / 4 overall and 0 / 3 in the relevant venue. No comparable league model or final score can be supported.
Samples H/A: overall 0/4; recent 0/4; venue 0/3. Venue goals for/conceded: Unavailable/Unavailable home; 2.67/0.33 away. Venue scoring 2+: Unavailable / 100.0%; conceding 2+: Unavailable / 0.0%; BTTS: Unavailable / 33.3%. Prematch feed-xG sum: Unavailable.

Bedford Town v Cray Wanderers · Insufficient league data
Available cup samples: 3 / 5 overall and 2 / 2 in the relevant venue. No comparable league model or final score can be supported.
Samples H/A: overall 3/5; recent 3/5; venue 2/2. Venue goals for/conceded: 2.00/1.50 home; 2.00/1.00 away. Venue scoring 2+: 100.0% / 100.0%; conceding 2+: 50.0% / 50.0%; BTTS: 100.0% / 50.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: 2.88.

Boreham Wood v Woking · Insufficient league data
Available cup samples: 0 / 0 overall and 0 / 0 in the relevant venue. No comparable league model or final score can be supported.
Samples H/A: overall 0/0; recent 0/0; venue 0/0. Venue goals for/conceded: Unavailable/Unavailable home; Unavailable/Unavailable away. Venue scoring 2+: Unavailable / Unavailable; conceding 2+: Unavailable / Unavailable; BTTS: Unavailable / Unavailable. Prematch feed-xG sum: Unavailable.

Boston United v Scunthorpe United · Insufficient league data
Available cup samples: 0 / 0 overall and 0 / 0 in the relevant venue. No comparable league model or final score can be supported.
Samples H/A: overall 0/0; recent 0/0; venue 0/0. Venue goals for/conceded: Unavailable/Unavailable home; Unavailable/Unavailable away. Venue scoring 2+: Unavailable / Unavailable; conceding 2+: Unavailable / Unavailable; BTTS: Unavailable / Unavailable. Prematch feed-xG sum: Unavailable.

Carlisle United v Tamworth · Insufficient league data
Available cup samples: 0 / 0 overall and 0 / 0 in the relevant venue. No comparable league model or final score can be supported.
Samples H/A: overall 0/0; recent 0/0; venue 0/0. Venue goals for/conceded: Unavailable/Unavailable home; Unavailable/Unavailable away. Venue scoring 2+: Unavailable / Unavailable; conceding 2+: Unavailable / Unavailable; BTTS: Unavailable / Unavailable. Prematch feed-xG sum: Unavailable.

Chesham United v Forest Green Rovers · Insufficient league data
Available cup samples: 2 / 0 overall and 2 / 0 in the relevant venue. No comparable league model or final score can be supported.
Samples H/A: overall 2/0; recent 2/0; venue 2/0. Venue goals for/conceded: 5.50/2.50 home; Unavailable/Unavailable away. Venue scoring 2+: 100.0% / Unavailable; conceding 2+: 100.0% / Unavailable; BTTS: 100.0% / Unavailable. Prematch feed-xG sum: Unavailable.

Chorley v Worcester City · Insufficient league data
Available cup samples: 2 / 4 overall and 0 / 2 in the relevant venue. No comparable league model or final score can be supported.
Samples H/A: overall 2/4; recent 2/4; venue 0/2. Venue goals for/conceded: Unavailable/Unavailable home; 2.00/1.00 away. Venue scoring 2+: Unavailable / 50.0%; conceding 2+: Unavailable / 0.0%; BTTS: Unavailable / 100.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: 2.88.

Dover Athletic v Dorking Wanderers · Insufficient league data
Available cup samples: 2 / 3 overall and 1 / 1 in the relevant venue. No comparable league model or final score can be supported.
Samples H/A: overall 2/3; recent 2/3; venue 1/1. Venue goals for/conceded: 4.00/2.00 home; 2.00/2.00 away. Venue scoring 2+: 100.0% / 100.0%; conceding 2+: 100.0% / 100.0%; BTTS: 100.0% / 100.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: 2.91.

Eastleigh v Brentwood Town · Insufficient league data
Available cup samples: 0 / 4 overall and 0 / 2 in the relevant venue. No comparable league model or final score can be supported.
Samples H/A: overall 0/4; recent 0/4; venue 0/2. Venue goals for/conceded: Unavailable/Unavailable home; 1.50/1.00 away. Venue scoring 2+: Unavailable / 50.0%; conceding 2+: Unavailable / 50.0%; BTTS: Unavailable / 50.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: Unavailable.

Fylde v Atherton Collieries · Insufficient league data
Available cup samples: 0 / 7 overall and 0 / 3 in the relevant venue. No comparable league model or final score can be supported.
Samples H/A: overall 0/7; recent 0/5; venue 0/3. Venue goals for/conceded: Unavailable/Unavailable home; 2.33/2.00 away. Venue scoring 2+: Unavailable / 100.0%; conceding 2+: Unavailable / 100.0%; BTTS: Unavailable / 100.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: Unavailable.

Gateshead v Stafford Rangers · Insufficient league data
Available cup samples: 0 / 6 overall and 0 / 1 in the relevant venue. No comparable league model or final score can be supported.
Samples H/A: overall 0/6; recent 0/5; venue 0/1. Venue goals for/conceded: Unavailable/Unavailable home; 2.00/1.00 away. Venue scoring 2+: Unavailable / 100.0%; conceding 2+: Unavailable / 0.0%; BTTS: Unavailable / 100.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: Unavailable.

Halifax Town v South Shields FC · Insufficient league data
Available cup samples: 0 / 2 overall and 0 / 1 in the relevant venue. No comparable league model or final score can be supported.
Samples H/A: overall 0/2; recent 0/2; venue 0/1. Venue goals for/conceded: Unavailable/Unavailable home; 2.00/0.00 away. Venue scoring 2+: Unavailable / 100.0%; conceding 2+: Unavailable / 0.0%; BTTS: Unavailable / 0.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: Unavailable.

Harborough Town v Spennymoor Town · Insufficient league data
Available cup samples: 2 / 2 overall and 2 / 1 in the relevant venue. No comparable league model or final score can be supported.
Samples H/A: overall 2/2; recent 2/2; venue 2/1. Venue goals for/conceded: 2.00/1.00 home; 4.00/0.00 away. Venue scoring 2+: 50.0% / 100.0%; conceding 2+: 50.0% / 0.0%; BTTS: 50.0% / 0.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: Unavailable.

Hartlepool United v Marine FC · Insufficient league data
Available cup samples: 0 / 2 overall and 0 / 0 in the relevant venue. No comparable league model or final score can be supported.
Samples H/A: overall 0/2; recent 0/2; venue 0/0. Venue goals for/conceded: Unavailable/Unavailable home; Unavailable/Unavailable away. Venue scoring 2+: Unavailable / Unavailable; conceding 2+: Unavailable / Unavailable; BTTS: Unavailable / Unavailable. Prematch feed-xG sum: Unavailable.

Kidderminster Harriers v Solihull Moors · Insufficient league data
Available cup samples: 0 / 0 overall and 0 / 0 in the relevant venue. No comparable league model or final score can be supported.
Samples H/A: overall 0/0; recent 0/0; venue 0/0. Venue goals for/conceded: Unavailable/Unavailable home; Unavailable/Unavailable away. Venue scoring 2+: Unavailable / Unavailable; conceding 2+: Unavailable / Unavailable; BTTS: Unavailable / Unavailable. Prematch feed-xG sum: Unavailable.

Leatherhead v Yeovil Town · Insufficient league data
Available cup samples: 3 / 0 overall and 2 / 0 in the relevant venue. No comparable league model or final score can be supported.
Samples H/A: overall 3/0; recent 3/0; venue 2/0. Venue goals for/conceded: 2.00/0.00 home; Unavailable/Unavailable away. Venue scoring 2+: 50.0% / Unavailable; conceding 2+: 0.0% / Unavailable; BTTS: 0.0% / Unavailable. Prematch feed-xG sum: Unavailable.

Leiston v Guiseley · Insufficient league data
Available cup samples: 4 / 4 overall and 2 / 2 in the relevant venue. No comparable league model or final score can be supported.
Samples H/A: overall 4/4; recent 4/4; venue 2/2. Venue goals for/conceded: 4.00/0.50 home; 3.00/1.50 away. Venue scoring 2+: 100.0% / 100.0%; conceding 2+: 0.0% / 50.0%; BTTS: 50.0% / 100.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: 3.13.

Macclesfield v Anstey Nomads · Insufficient league data
Available cup samples: 3 / 3 overall and 1 / 2 in the relevant venue. No comparable league model or final score can be supported.
Samples H/A: overall 3/3; recent 3/3; venue 1/2. Venue goals for/conceded: 2.00/2.00 home; 3.50/1.00 away. Venue scoring 2+: 100.0% / 100.0%; conceding 2+: 100.0% / 50.0%; BTTS: 100.0% / 50.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: 2.98.

Plymouth Parkway v Chertsey Town · Insufficient league data
Available cup samples: 3 / 4 overall and 1 / 2 in the relevant venue. No comparable league model or final score can be supported.
Samples H/A: overall 3/4; recent 3/4; venue 1/2. Venue goals for/conceded: 2.00/1.00 home; 2.00/0.50 away. Venue scoring 2+: 100.0% / 100.0%; conceding 2+: 0.0% / 0.0%; BTTS: 100.0% / 50.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: Unavailable.

Salisbury v Eastbourne Borough · Insufficient league data
Available cup samples: 2 / 3 overall and 2 / 2 in the relevant venue. No comparable league model or final score can be supported.
Samples H/A: overall 2/3; recent 2/3; venue 2/2. Venue goals for/conceded: 4.50/0.50 home; 2.50/1.00 away. Venue scoring 2+: 100.0% / 50.0%; conceding 2+: 0.0% / 50.0%; BTTS: 50.0% / 50.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: Unavailable.

Sholing v SE Døns · Insufficient league data
Available cup samples: 3 / 6 overall and 1 / 4 in the relevant venue. No comparable league model or final score can be supported.
Samples H/A: overall 3/6; recent 3/5; venue 1/4. Venue goals for/conceded: 2.00/0.00 home; 3.75/1.00 away. Venue scoring 2+: 100.0% / 75.0%; conceding 2+: 0.0% / 25.0%; BTTS: 0.0% / 75.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: Unavailable.

Southend United v Berkhamsted · Insufficient league data
Available cup samples: 0 / 3 overall and 0 / 2 in the relevant venue. No comparable league model or final score can be supported.
Samples H/A: overall 0/3; recent 0/3; venue 0/2. Venue goals for/conceded: Unavailable/Unavailable home; 2.50/1.00 away. Venue scoring 2+: Unavailable / 100.0%; conceding 2+: Unavailable / 50.0%; BTTS: Unavailable / 50.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: Unavailable.

Spalding United v Alvechurch · Insufficient league data
Available cup samples: 3 / 3 overall and 2 / 1 in the relevant venue. No comparable league model or final score can be supported.
Samples H/A: overall 3/3; recent 3/3; venue 2/1. Venue goals for/conceded: 3.00/0.00 home; 2.00/1.00 away. Venue scoring 2+: 100.0% / 100.0%; conceding 2+: 0.0% / 0.0%; BTTS: 0.0% / 100.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: Unavailable.

Sutton United v Truro City · Insufficient league data
Available cup samples: 0 / 3 overall and 0 / 1 in the relevant venue. No comparable league model or final score can be supported.
Samples H/A: overall 0/3; recent 0/3; venue 0/1. Venue goals for/conceded: Unavailable/Unavailable home; 1.00/1.00 away. Venue scoring 2+: Unavailable / 0.0%; conceding 2+: Unavailable / 0.0%; BTTS: Unavailable / 100.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: Unavailable.

Torquay United v Oxford City · Insufficient league data
Available cup samples: 2 / 2 overall and 1 / 1 in the relevant venue. No comparable league model or final score can be supported.
Samples H/A: overall 2/2; recent 2/2; venue 1/1. Venue goals for/conceded: 6.00/1.00 home; 2.00/0.00 away. Venue scoring 2+: 100.0% / 100.0%; conceding 2+: 0.0% / 0.0%; BTTS: 100.0% / 0.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: 3.94.

Uxbridge v AFC Hornchurch · Insufficient league data
Available cup samples: 4 / 0 overall and 3 / 0 in the relevant venue. No comparable league model or final score can be supported.
Samples H/A: overall 4/0; recent 4/0; venue 3/0. Venue goals for/conceded: 2.67/1.00 home; Unavailable/Unavailable away. Venue scoring 2+: 100.0% / Unavailable; conceding 2+: 33.3% / Unavailable; BTTS: 66.7% / Unavailable. Prematch feed-xG sum: Unavailable.

Wealdstone v Worthing · Insufficient league data
Available cup samples: 0 / 0 overall and 0 / 0 in the relevant venue. No comparable league model or final score can be supported.
Samples H/A: overall 0/0; recent 0/0; venue 0/0. Venue goals for/conceded: Unavailable/Unavailable home; Unavailable/Unavailable away. Venue scoring 2+: Unavailable / Unavailable; conceding 2+: Unavailable / Unavailable; BTTS: Unavailable / Unavailable. Prematch feed-xG sum: Unavailable.

Wimborne Town v Chelmsford City · Insufficient league data
Available cup samples: 5 / 2 overall and 2 / 2 in the relevant venue. Small-sample cup warnings: Both venue Over rates below 40%; Venue total-goal average below 2.4. No comparable league model or final score can be supported.
Samples H/A: overall 5/2; recent 5/2; venue 2/2. Venue goals for/conceded: 0.50/0.50 home; 1.50/0.00 away. Venue scoring 2+: 0.0% / 50.0%; conceding 2+: 0.0% / 0.0%; BTTS: 50.0% / 0.0%. Prematch feed-xG sum: Unavailable.

All 71 match prices — same-label pairs

Fixture	Feed bookmaker	Over / Under 2.5	Over break-even	Normalised market Over
Everton v Chelsea	BetVictor	1.62 / 2.12	61.7%	56.7%
Peterborough United v Burton Albion	BetVictor	1.55 / 2.25	64.5%	59.2%
Milton Keynes Dons v Luton Town	BetVictor	1.64 / 2.08	61.0%	55.9%
Watford v Charlton Athletic	BetVictor	1.86 / 1.81	53.8%	49.3%
Millwall v Lincoln City	Betfair	1.75 / 2.05	57.1%	53.9%
Middlesbrough v Cardiff City	BetVictor	1.36 / 2.82	73.5%	67.5%
Shrewsbury Town v Bristol Rovers	BetVictor	1.99 / 1.70	50.3%	46.1%
Fleetwood Town v Rotherham United	BetVictor	1.83 / 1.84	54.6%	50.1%
Bury v Harrogate Town	BetVictor	1.53 / 2.38	65.4%	60.9%
Brentford v Liverpool	BetVictor	1.53 / 2.29	65.4%	59.9%
Manchester City v Ipswich Town	BetVictor	1.33 / 3.25	75.2%	71.0%
Fulham v Hull City	BetVictor	1.70 / 1.99	58.8%	53.9%
Sheffield Wednesday v AFC Wimbledon	BetVictor	1.64 / 2.07	61.0%	55.8%
Barnsley v Cambridge United	BetVictor	1.60 / 2.15	62.5%	57.3%
Plymouth Argyle v Huddersfield Town	1xbet	1.64 / 2.17	61.0%	57.0%
Wycombe Wanderers v Notts County	1xbet	1.81 / 1.93	55.2%	51.6%
Leyton Orient v Blackpool	BetVictor	1.65 / 2.07	60.6%	55.6%
Leicester City v Doncaster Rovers	BetVictor	1.53 / 2.29	65.4%	59.9%
Bradford City v Stevenage	BetVictor	2.12 / 1.62	47.2%	43.3%
Wigan Athletic v Reading	1xbet	1.66 / 2.14	60.2%	56.3%
Stockport County v Bromley	1xbet	1.37 / 2.66	73.0%	66.0%
Derby County v Stoke City	Sbo	1.94 / 1.88	51.5%	49.2%
Swansea City v West Ham United	Sbo	1.74 / 2.08	57.5%	54.5%
Norwich City v Portsmouth	Betfair	1.67 / 2.15	59.9%	56.3%
Bristol City v Sheffield United	Betfair	1.80 / 2.00	55.6%	52.6%
West Bromwich Albion v Blackburn Rovers	BetVictor	1.96 / 1.72	51.0%	46.7%
Birmingham City v Queens Park Rangers	Betfair	1.87 / 1.90	53.5%	50.4%
Southampton v Bolton Wanderers	Betfair	1.40 / 2.88	71.4%	67.3%
Wrexham v Preston North End	1xbet	1.79 / 1.95	55.9%	52.1%
Port Vale v Chesterfield	BetVictor	1.79 / 1.88	55.9%	51.2%
Crewe Alexandra v Rochdale	BetVictor	1.80 / 1.87	55.6%	51.0%
Tranmere Rovers v Barnet	BetVictor	1.65 / 2.06	60.6%	55.5%
Newport County v York City	BetVictor	1.67 / 2.04	59.9%	55.0%
Swindon Town v Walsall	1xbet	1.66 / 2.12	60.2%	56.1%
Oldham Athletic v Cheltenham Town	BetVictor	1.72 / 1.97	58.1%	53.4%
Grimsby Town v Northampton Town	BetVictor	1.79 / 1.88	55.9%	51.2%
Colchester United v Exeter City	BetVictor	1.93 / 1.75	51.8%	47.6%
Salford City v Crawley Town	Betfair	1.40 / 2.88	71.4%	67.3%
Accrington Stanley v Gillingham	BetVictor	1.88 / 1.79	53.2%	48.8%
Barrow v Gloucester City	1xbet	1.44 / 2.42	69.4%	62.7%
Salisbury v Eastbourne Borough	1xbet	1.44 / 2.43	69.4%	62.8%
Chorley v Worcester City	1xbet	1.62 / 2.12	61.7%	56.7%
Eastleigh v Brentwood Town	1xbet	1.41 / 2.52	70.9%	64.1%
Boreham Wood v Woking	Pinnacle	1.41 / 2.57	70.9%	64.6%
Uxbridge v AFC Hornchurch	1xbet	1.36 / 2.70	73.5%	66.5%
Hartlepool United v Marine FC	1xbet	1.59 / 2.17	62.9%	57.7%
Carlisle United v Tamworth	1xbet	1.59 / 2.10	62.9%	56.9%
Sutton United v Truro City	1xbet	1.81 / 1.86	55.2%	50.7%
Altrincham v United of Manchester	1xbet	1.42 / 2.49	70.4%	63.7%
Sholing v SE Døns	1xbet	1.28 / 3.08	78.1%	70.6%
Chesham United v Forest Green Rovers	BetVictor	1.44 / 2.63	69.4%	64.6%
AFC Rushden & Diamonds v Morecambe	BetVictor	1.44 / 2.63	69.4%	64.6%
Leatherhead v Yeovil Town	bet365	1.40 / 2.75	71.4%	66.3%
Plymouth Parkway v Chertsey Town	1xbet	1.46 / 2.38	68.5%	62.0%
Wealdstone v Worthing	BetVictor	1.53 / 2.38	65.4%	60.9%
Dover Athletic v Dorking Wanderers	1xbet	1.32 / 2.88	75.8%	68.6%
Leiston v Guiseley	1xbet	1.38 / 2.62	72.5%	65.5%
Kidderminster Harriers v Solihull Moors	Pinnacle	1.83 / 1.88	54.6%	50.7%
Wimborne Town v Chelmsford City	BetVictor	1.89 / 1.78	52.9%	48.5%
Harborough Town v Spennymoor Town	1xbet	1.57 / 2.20	63.7%	58.4%
Halifax Town v South Shields FC	Pinnacle	1.55 / 2.23	64.5%	59.0%
Torquay United v Oxford City	Pinnacle	1.53 / 2.17	65.4%	58.6%
Boston United v Scunthorpe United	Pinnacle	1.40 / 2.58	71.4%	64.8%
Southend United v Berkhamsted	1xbet	1.42 / 2.49	70.4%	63.7%
Aldershot Town v Tadley Calleva	bet365	1.28 / 3.50	78.1%	73.2%
Macclesfield v Anstey Nomads	1xbet	1.40 / 2.56	71.4%	64.6%
Spalding United v Alvechurch	1xbet	1.81 / 1.86	55.2%	50.7%
Fylde v Atherton Collieries	bet365	1.33 / 3.25	75.2%	71.0%
Bedford Town v Cray Wanderers	bet365	1.50 / 2.50	66.7%	62.5%
Gateshead v Stafford Rangers	bet365	1.44 / 2.62	69.4%	64.5%
Newcastle United v Aston Villa	Pinnacle	1.62 / 2.38	61.7%	59.5%

Prices come from matching Over 2.5 / Under 2.5 entries within the same bookmaker label in each match-detail feed. Provider labels are reported for provenance, not endorsement. Quotes are indicative: exact execution timestamps, limits and live availability were not independently verified. The proportional margin adjustment is (1/Over) ÷ [(1/Over) + (1/Under)]. Its result is a market estimate, not our model probability; EV is not inferred by substituting historical hit rates.

How the supplied strategy was applied

Component	Weight	Coverage
Season team Over 2.5 profile	30%	Full current-season league histories for the top four divisions; cup-only history shown separately.
Relevant home/away goal profile	20%	Venue Over rates, total-goal averages, scoring and conceding averages calculated.
Recent 5–10 form	15%	Latest five completed competition matches per team; actual sample sizes shown. Fewer than five in cup cases remains incomplete.
Scoring/conceding consistency	10%	Venue 2+ scoring/conceding, BTTS and failure-to-score rates calculated.
xG/xGA	10%	Prematch feed-xG context available where nonzero; adjusted scoring/conceding model incomplete.
League environment	5%	Calculated independently for each league; not used to override team-level weaknesses.
Situational factors	5%	Partial official news; full line-up, injury and conditions checks unresolved.
Price/value	5%	Same-label Over/Under pairs retrieved; independent calibrated probability and EV unverified.

Numeric rejection tests: both relevant venue Over rates below 40%; combined venue total-goal average below 2.4; either latest-five Over rate below 40% unless exceptional venue and xG evidence is verified. No discretionary exception is assumed here. Other strategy filters—including regular failure to score, whether the opponent rarely concedes twice, attacking absences and too-short prices—require match-specific judgement and are disclosed as risks rather than replaced by invented thresholds.

The supplied PDF gives weights and classification bands but no complete component-to-points conversion or average-goals scaling for its historical screening index. No exact FIS or confidence percentage is invented. Final scores are unavailable; no fixture is certified at 80+ for a main selection or 85+ for a multiple. The framework’s September examples are not reused as today’s matches.

Accumulator and staking decision

No approved Over 2.5 accumulator or stake allocation. Your rule permits only final scores of 85+ in a multiple, and each leg still needs verified value and team news. The seven statistical rows are a data-completion watchlist, not an invitation to combine them. Adding unverified legs increases failure risk without demonstrating an edge.

Sources, cut-off and calculation notes

Primary evidence: connected FootyStats matches-by-date for 17 October 2026 (all one-page results), league-list season resolution, all season-match pages for Premier League 17146 (2), Championship 17184 (3), League One 17180 (3), League Two 17185 (3) and FA Cup 17234 (4), plus all 71 match details. All 2,771 scheduled records were unique within their competition. Completed prior histories total 1,100 matches across those competitions. No result from today is included.

Over means home goals + away goals ≥3. Venue AVG is the equal-weighted mean of the two teams’ relevant total-goal averages; it is not a calibrated match forecast. Rates are shown with sample counts and one decimal place. Missing histories are unavailable. A zero prematch xG is treated as unavailable for cup screening, because the feed cannot distinguish no measurement from a true zero forecast. No result is inferred from incomplete-match 0–0 placeholders. Historical data may be revised.

Methodology: user-supplied 2-5 goals(3).pdf, PBT Over 2.5 Goals Strategy, pages 1–6. Fixture checks: Sky Sports, today’s fixtures; FA fourth qualifying-round listings; official Manchester City fixture preview. Newcastle news source is linked above. The existing Championship report’s Cardiff and Derby official-source context remains relevant but does not constitute a full-card line-up check.

Over/Under 2.5 strategy · 2.5-goals reports. 18+. No strategy guarantees profit.