Roma to win @ 2.20
Model 51.4% | Implied 45.5% | Edge +5.9%
Kelly result capped by strategy at 5% of bankroll.
UEFA Champions League - Poisson Value Report
Thursday 10 September 2026 | Strategy 1: Poisson Distribution Value Model (Singles)
Lens to win @ 2.65
Model 43.4% | Implied 37.7% | Edge +5.6%
Kelly result capped by strategy at 5% of bankroll.
Method and data treatment
Your strategy requires projected goals, Poisson score probabilities, comparison with bookmaker implied probability, a minimum +5 percentage-point value edge, Kelly staking capped at 5%, and singles only. As this is the opening UCL matchday, the report uses a provisional rolling-strength calibration rather than an unavailable 2026/27 UCL league-average sample.
Odds are market snapshots and can move. Re-check before acting; a selection should be skipped if movement removes the required edge.
Value ranking
| Rank | Selection | Odds | Model | Implied | Edge | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roma | 2.20 | 51.4% | 45.5% | +5.9% | VALUE |
| 2 | Lens | 2.65 | 43.4% | 37.7% | +5.6% | VALUE |
| 3 | Manchester United | 1.11 | 90.6% | 90.1% | +0.5% | SKIP |
| 4 | Como | 1.84 | 53.7% | 54.3% | -0.6% | SKIP |
| 5 | PSV | 1.46 | 66.3% | 68.5% | -2.2% | SKIP |
| 6 | Bayern Munich | 1.11 | 81.1% | 90.1% | -9.0% | SKIP |
Match-by-match analysis
Fenerbahce vs Roma 17:45 UK
Projected xG: Fenerbahce 1.05 - 1.65 Roma
| Outcome | Model % | Odds | Implied % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce | 24.1% | 3.30 | 30.3% | -6.2% |
| Draw | 24.5% | 3.50 | 28.6% | -4.1% |
| Roma | 51.4% | 2.20 | 45.5% | +5.9% |
Model selection: Roma @ 2.20 - QUALIFIES. Edge +5.9 percentage points.
Roma offer the clearest away-side price in this matchup. The provisional Poisson projection makes their win probability materially higher than the market-implied probability.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (11.6%), 0-1 (11.1%), 1-2 (9.6%)
PSV vs Shakhtar Donetsk 17:45 UK
Projected xG: PSV 2.35 - 1.05 Shakhtar
| Outcome | Model % | Odds | Implied % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV | 66.3% | 1.46 | 68.5% | -2.2% |
| Draw | 18.3% | 5.20 | 19.2% | -0.9% |
| Shakhtar | 15.4% | 6.20 | 16.1% | -0.7% |
Model selection: PSV @ 1.46 - SKIP. Edge -2.2 percentage points.
PSV are the most likely winner, but the short home price already absorbs most of that advantage, leaving no 5% value edge.
Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (9.2%), 1-1 (8.2%)
Como vs RB Leipzig 20:00 UK
Projected xG: Como 1.90 - 1.20 RB Leipzig
| Outcome | Model % | Odds | Implied % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Como | 53.7% | 1.84 | 54.3% | -0.6% |
| Draw | 22.3% | 4.00 | 25.0% | -2.7% |
| RB Leipzig | 23.9% | 4.10 | 24.4% | -0.5% |
Model selection: Como @ 1.84 - SKIP. Edge -0.6 percentage points.
The model leans Como, but the market is even more bullish on the home side. Strong win probability does not equal value at the available price.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.8%), 1-0 (8.6%)
Bayern Munich vs Bodo/Glimt 20:00 UK
Projected xG: Bayern Munich 3.30 - 1.00 Bodo/Glimt
| Outcome | Model % | Odds | Implied % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich | 81.1% | 1.11 | 90.1% | -9.0% |
| Draw | 11.2% | 12.00 | 8.3% | +2.9% |
| Bodo/Glimt | 7.7% | 20.00 | 5.0% | +2.7% |
Model selection: Bayern Munich @ 1.11 - SKIP. Edge -9.0 percentage points.
Bayern are a heavy favourite. Bodo/Glimt have shown they can score in Europe, which reduces the home-win probability enough that 1.11 is not value under a strict 5% threshold.
Most likely scorelines: 3-1 (8.1%), 3-0 (8.1%), 2-1 (7.4%)
Manchester United vs Sabah 20:00 UK
Projected xG: Manchester United 3.80 - 0.65 Sabah
| Outcome | Model % | Odds | Implied % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | 90.6% | 1.11 | 90.1% | +0.5% |
| Draw | 6.4% | 11.00 | 9.1% | -2.7% |
| Sabah | 2.8% | 23.00 | 4.3% | -1.5% |
Model selection: Manchester United @ 1.11 - SKIP. Edge +0.5 percentage points.
United have the highest model win probability on the card, but 1.11 requires roughly a 90% hit rate. The model edge is too small to qualify.
Most likely scorelines: 3-0 (10.7%), 4-0 (10.1%), 2-0 (8.4%)
Slavia Prague vs Lens 20:00 UK
Projected xG: Slavia Prague 1.35 - 1.60 Lens
| Outcome | Model % | Odds | Implied % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slavia Prague | 32.3% | 2.65 | 37.7% | -5.4% |
| Draw | 24.3% | 3.50 | 28.6% | -4.2% |
| Lens | 43.4% | 2.65 | 37.7% | +5.6% |
Model selection: Lens @ 2.65 - QUALIFIES. Edge +5.6 percentage points.
This is the second qualifying value position. The market prices the teams almost evenly, while the provisional Poisson projection gives Lens a stronger away-win chance.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (11.3%), 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.4%)
Final strategy view
Strict output: Roma win and Lens win as separate singles. Bayern Munich, Manchester United, PSV and Como are not qualifying value bets at the reference prices even where their win probability is high.
Re-check lineups, injuries, manager changes and late odds movement. The supplied rules specifically identify those as reasons to skip a selection when historical inputs may no longer represent the match.
Analytical information only. No model guarantees profit. Use fixed bankroll limits and never chase losses.