Data-integrity notice: Fixtures are listed for Sunday 27 September 2026. The season and recent Over 1.5 hit rates, home/away splits, xG and live bookmaker odds needed for a defensible FIS or confidence estimate have not been verified. No numerical score, value edge or betting selection is asserted. “Not scored” does not mean a low score.
Today’s UEFA Nations League fixtures
| UK kick-off | Fixture | FIS | Confidence | Selection |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | Lithuania vs Azerbaijan | Not scored | Unverified | Withheld |
| 17:00 | Gibraltar vs Andorra | Not scored | Unverified | Withheld |
| 17:00 | Austria vs Kosovo | Not scored | Unverified | Withheld |
| 17:00 | Denmark vs Wales | Not scored | Unverified | Withheld |
| 17:00 | Serbia vs Netherlands | Not scored | Unverified | Withheld |
| 19:45 | Germany vs Greece | Not scored | Unverified | Withheld |
| 19:45 | Norway vs Portugal | Not scored | Unverified | Withheld |
| 19:45 | Israel vs Republic of Ireland | Not scored | Unverified | Withheld |
Updated matchday-one evidence — 27 September
UEFA’s published opening-round results provide the following fresh observations. These are single-match results, not verified 5–10-match goal-rate samples. They do not establish an Over 1.5 probability or justify assigning an FIS.
| Today’s fixture | Relevant opening results | Over 1.5 outcome in opener |
|---|---|---|
| Lithuania vs Azerbaijan | Liechtenstein 0–2 Lithuania; Azerbaijan opening result not verified | Lithuania: yes |
| Gibraltar vs Andorra | Andorra 1–2 Malta; Gibraltar opening result not verified | Andorra: yes |
| Austria vs Kosovo | Austria 3–1 Israel; Kosovo 1–0 Republic of Ireland | Austria: yes; Kosovo: no |
| Denmark vs Wales | Norway 3–2 Denmark; Portugal 1–0 Wales | Denmark: yes; Wales: no |
| Serbia vs Netherlands | Serbia 1–2 Greece; Netherlands 1–1 Germany | Both: yes |
| Germany vs Greece | Netherlands 1–1 Germany; Serbia 1–2 Greece | Both: yes |
| Norway vs Portugal | Norway 3–2 Denmark; Portugal 1–0 Wales | Norway: yes; Portugal: no |
| Israel vs Republic of Ireland | Austria 3–1 Israel; Kosovo 1–0 Republic of Ireland | Israel: yes; Republic of Ireland: no |
Source: UEFA official 2026/27 fixtures and results. Today’s fixtures and kick-off times: UEFA official fixture PDF. No unverified bookmaker odds or invented confidence percentages have been added.
PBT Over 1.5 scoring framework
The uploaded strategy allocates 25 points to team Over 1.5 hit rates, 20 to home/away goal profile, 15 to recent form, 15 to scoring/conceding consistency, 10 to xG/xGA, 5 to competition environment, 5 to situational factors and 5 to price/value. Its 80/100 minimum, 85+ priority and 90+ elite thresholds were designed for English domestic leagues. Using them for national-team fixtures is an unvalidated adaptation, not a validated international betting model.
Before publishing selections, verify each side’s recent international Over 1.5 record, venue-specific scoring and conceding, full last 5–10 results, reliable chance-quality data, team news and available decimal odds. Implied probability = 1 / decimal odds. No accumulator qualifies without reliable scores of 85+ and evidence of price value. Historical patterns cannot guarantee outcomes.