PremierBettingTips · Football Intelligence · Saturday 26 September 2026
UEFA Nations League — Over 1.5 Goals: FIS & Confidence
Ten fixtures ranked highest to lowest by provisional Football Intelligence Score (FIS) and analyst confidence for at least two total match goals.
Full ranking
| Rank | Fixture | UK kick-off | Provisional FIS | Confidence | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iceland vs Estonia | 17:00 BST | 79/100 | 76/100 | Leading watchlist |
| 2 | San Marino vs Finland | 17:00 BST | 77/100 | 72/100 | Leading watchlist |
| 3 | Czechia vs Croatia | 19:45 BST | 73/100 | 69/100 | Watchlist |
| 4 | North Macedonia vs Switzerland | 19:45 BST | 72/100 | 68/100 | Watchlist |
| 5 | England vs Spain | 19:45 BST | 70/100 | 63/100 | Watchlist |
| 6 | Slovakia vs Moldova | 19:45 BST | 68/100 | 62/100 | Conditional |
| 7 | Slovenia vs Scotland | 14:00 BST | 64/100 | 59/100 | Conditional |
| 8 | Faroe Islands vs Kazakhstan | 17:00 BST | 61/100 | 56/100 | Weak goal signal |
| 9 | Albania vs Belarus | 19:45 BST | 53/100 | 48/100 | Weak goal signal |
| 10 | Bulgaria vs Luxembourg | 17:00 BST | 50/100 | 46/100 | Weak goal signal |
Fixture times based on the UEFA official fixture list. Ranking reflects editorial research priority, not back-tested forecasts or verified betting value.
Individual match intelligence
#1 · 17:00 BST · Leading watchlist
Iceland vs Estonia
FIS 79/100 · Confidence 76/100
Iceland averaged 1.8 scored and 2.0 conceded across its last ten competitive matches; Estonia averaged 0.8 scored and 2.2 conceded. The cited preview records Over 2.5 in seven of Iceland’s last ten and seven of Estonia’s last ten away games. These are supporting proxies, not a verified Over 1.5 hit-rate table.
#2 · 17:00 BST · Leading watchlist
San Marino vs Finland
FIS 77/100 · Confidence 72/100
San Marino conceded 4.1 goals per match across its last ten competitive games. Finland averaged only 0.8 goals scored in its own last ten, so the mismatch is not a two-goal guarantee. Current price and full team records remain unverified.
#3 · 19:45 BST · Watchlist
Czechia vs Croatia
FIS 73/100 · Confidence 69/100
Both teams have attacking options and a cited preview quoted Over 2.5 at 1.78. That is a contextual market snapshot, not an Over 1.5 price or independent probability. Venue splits and recent Over 1.5 rates are missing.
#4 · 19:45 BST · Watchlist
North Macedonia vs Switzerland
FIS 72/100 · Confidence 68/100
A published preview quoted Over 2.5 at 1.75. Switzerland’s quality offers a route to two total goals, but a strong away side can still win narrowly. Full Over 1.5 rates and a live Over 1.5 price are not verified.
#5 · 19:45 BST · Watchlist
England vs Spain
FIS 70/100 · Confidence 63/100
UEFA’s preview highlights attacking personnel on both sides, but the opposition level is high and England have had squad withdrawals. Attacking quality alone is not a measured Over 1.5 hit rate.
#6 · 19:45 BST · Conditional
Slovakia vs Moldova
FIS 68/100 · Confidence 62/100
Slovakia scored 1.4 goals per game in a cited ten-match sample. Moldova’s cited Nations League sample shows 0.3 scored and 1.7 conceded per game. The samples mix competitions, and price/value remain unverified.
#7 · 14:00 BST · Conditional
Slovenia vs Scotland
FIS 64/100 · Confidence 59/100
Slovenia’s cited ten Nations League matches averaged 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded. Scotland’s recent results are mixed. A one-goal outcome remains plausible; goal averages do not establish Over 1.5 hit rates.
#8 · 17:00 BST · Weak goal signal
Faroe Islands vs Kazakhstan
FIS 61/100 · Confidence 56/100
Faroe Islands’ home form is encouraging, but the previous meeting ended 1–0. A published preview notes Kazakhstan’s scoring limitations. Home-result strength does not necessarily imply high match goal totals.
#9 · 19:45 BST · Weak goal signal
Albania vs Belarus
FIS 53/100 · Confidence 48/100
Albania’s cited ten-match sample shows 0.9 scored and 1.2 conceded per game; Belarus’ cited sample shows six scored and ten conceded across ten. Venue splits and current market value remain unverified.
#10 · 17:00 BST · Weak goal signal
Bulgaria vs Luxembourg
FIS 50/100 · Confidence 46/100
A cited preview reports Bulgaria averaged 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded in its last ten Nations League matches. Another analysis notes recent low-scoring meetings. No exact Over 1.5 probability is claimed.
How to use the scores
Official PBT FIS weights: Over 1.5 hit rates 25; home/away goals 20; recent form 15; scoring/conceding consistency 15; xG/xGA 10; league environment 5; situation 5; price/value 5. A completed score requires those data and a defensible price comparison.
Provisional FIS: 0–100 editorial research-priority grade based on accessible scoring evidence, matchup and market context, reduced for missing or conflicting information. Numerical precision is presentational, not statistical.
Confidence: 0–100 analyst assessment of agreement among available signals. It is not the probability of two goals or an expected-value calculation.
Decision: No fixture qualifies as an official 80+ PBT selection on currently verified evidence. Check both teams’ recent Over 1.5 records, home/away splits, confirmed line-ups and live odds before any decision. This international screen has not been validated as an equivalent of the English-league model.
Sources: user-supplied PBT English Goals Intelligence — Over 1.5 Goals Strategy, pages 1–6; UEFA fixtures; the match previews linked above. Source figures are snapshots and may mix competitions. Prepared before kick-off, 26 September 2026. Educational use only; 18+. No returns guaranteed.