UEFA Nations League
First-Half Goal Report
Sunday 27 September 2026 · Over 0.5 first-half goals · Fixture-verified preliminary screening
Today’s fixture screening
Listed by kick-off, then UEFA fixture order—not by expected performance. Times converted from UEFA’s CET listing to UK BST (one hour earlier).
| UK kick-off | Fixture | Group | Verified contextual evidence | FIS / confidence | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | Lithuania vs Azerbaijan | D2 | Lithuania beat Liechtenstein 2–0 in its opening fixture; first-half timing unverified. | Not calculated | Await data |
| 17:00 | Serbia vs Netherlands | A2 | Serbia lost 1–2 to Greece; Netherlands drew 1–1 with Germany. Full-time totals do not establish first-half rates. | Not calculated | Await data |
| 17:00 | Denmark vs Wales | A4 | Denmark lost 2–3 to Norway; Wales lost 0–1 to Portugal. Wales squad withdrawals reported. | Not calculated | Await data |
| 17:00 | Austria vs Kosovo | B3 | Austria beat Israel 3–1; Kosovo beat Republic of Ireland 1–0. Early scoring not verified. | Not calculated | Await data |
| 17:00 | Gibraltar vs Andorra | D1 | Andorra lost 1–2 to Malta; Gibraltar’s comparable first-half dataset unverified. | Not calculated | Await data |
| 19:45 | Germany vs Greece | A2 | Germany drew 1–1 with Netherlands; Greece beat Serbia 2–1. | Not calculated | Await data |
| 19:45 | Norway vs Portugal | A4 | Norway beat Denmark 3–2; Portugal beat Wales 1–0. Opening-round goals are not sufficient for first-half probability. | Not calculated | Await data |
| 19:45 | Israel vs Republic of Ireland | B3 | Israel lost 1–3 to Austria; Republic of Ireland lost 0–1 to Kosovo. | Not calculated | Await data |
Scoring method from your uploaded strategy
FIS is a 100-point weighted assessment: first-half goal hit rate 20, first-half scoring 15, first-half conceding 15, underlying attack 15, early tempo 10, venue-adjusted form 10, tactical context 10, and lineups/conditions 5.
Pre-match selection additionally requires combined first-half goal rate of at least 65%, acceptable 0–0 half-time rates, adequate first-half attacking evidence, confirmed attackers, FIS ≥75, and model probability at least three percentage points above the bookmaker break-even probability with positive expected value.
Confidence: A numerical percentage requires a calibrated first-half model; the FIS itself is not a probability. The one-match opening results above cannot responsibly support such a percentage.
Value: Break-even probability = 1 ÷ decimal odds; expected value = model probability × decimal odds − 1. No current first-half odds were verified, so EV remains unavailable.
Required before ranking
For each side: at least eight comparable games where possible; half-time scores and first-half goals for/against; first-half xG and shots on target; home/away splits; confirmed attacking lineups; and live bookmaker odds for Over 0.5 first-half goals. Once verified, calculate the eight component scores and sort by FIS descending, then model confidence. With insufficient sample, label the score provisional rather than presenting it as a validated prediction.
Sources and timing
UEFA: official 2026/27 fixtures and opening results · UEFA: Matchday 2 preview · talkSPORT: Wales squad withdrawals. Fixture list accessed for this report on 27 September 2026. UK times are BST. Strategy: user-supplied PBT Over 0.5 First-Half Goal Strategy.