Scottish Premiership Football Intelligence Report
Sunday 20 September 2026 • Ranked highest to lowest using the Football Intelligence Score framework.
Celtic vs Rangers
Team FIS comparison
| Team | FIS | Interpretation | Key context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers | 73.5 | Strong context | Five-match winning run, full midweek recovery, and strong tactical evidence from the recent 3–0 derby win. |
| Celtic | 42.3 | Adverse / unclear context | Short recovery after Thursday’s Europa League match, recent derby defeat and several unavailable players. |
FIS breakdown
| Category | Weight | Celtic | Rangers | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stakes & incentives | 18% | 100 | 100 | Maximum derby intensity and league importance for both sides. |
| Availability & lineup leverage | 22% | 25 | 25 | Both teams have meaningful absences; neither receives a clear contextual edge here. |
| Recovery, travel & rotation | 15% | 0 | 100 | Celtic played Europa League on Thursday; Rangers had the week free. |
| Tactical & managerial fit | 15% | 25 | 100 | Rangers’ pressing approach worked strongly in the previous derby; Celtic must show an effective response. |
| Club environment | 10% | 25 | 75 | Celtic enter after two damaging defeats; Rangers carry stronger immediate momentum. |
| Information integrity | 10% | 75 | 75 | Current fixture, form and team-news information supported by established sources. |
| Market intelligence | 10% | 50 | 50 | No detailed multi-book price history available for a stronger directional score. |
Context differential
The negative differential indicates that the verified contextual position currently favours Rangers substantially more than Celtic. With an information-integrity floor of 75, the Strategy 5 research-priority calculation is approximately 23.4.
Match intelligence
Recovery: This is the largest contextual separator. Celtic played a European fixture on Thursday, only three days before the derby, whereas Rangers had no midweek match.
Recent tactical evidence: Rangers beat Celtic 3–0 in the League Cup on 13 September. Contemporary reporting highlighted an intense man-to-man pressing approach, creating a clear tactical question for Celtic’s build-up.
Availability: Both teams carry absences, so this category does not create the same separation as recovery. Celtic’s unavailable list includes Alistair Johnston, Callum Osmand and Jota, while Hyun-Jun Yang is away at the Asian Games. Rangers are without Lawrence Shankland and Youssef Chermiti, with other players assessed close to kickoff.
Market: Published prices around the reporting window still made Celtic the home favourite. FIS itself does not establish that any available price is value.
Strategy 5 conclusion
Celtic rate 42.3/100. The largest drivers are Rangers’ superior recovery window, five-match winning run and the tactical evidence from the recent 3–0 derby victory. Under Strategy 5, this is a strong contextual research signal rather than a standalone prediction or automatic bet.
Method: Strategy 5 — Situational Context Betting & Football Intelligence Score. FIS measures contextual evidence relative to each team’s baseline. It is not a probability of winning, expected return, or guarantee.