Provisional model lean: Reading • score illustration 1-2 • 1X2 baseline 31% / 25% / 44%.

Context: Reading have scored 11 goals in their last three matches in all competitions; Cambridge have started well after promotion, so this is not a routine away win.

Availability: No decisive confirmed lineup swing; final teams remain important.

Adversarial check: Cambridge are sixth, have lost only once in five league games and beat Bradford 2-1.

Provisional model lean: Oxford United • score illustration 2-1 • 1X2 baseline 42% / 29% / 29%.

Context: Oxford arrive from a 4-0 league win at Leicester and are expected to retain the same XI; Burton are fifth and bring stable selection.

Availability: Both sides are expected to be broadly unchanged.

Adversarial check: Burton have taken eight points from five games and their context is also strong, compressing the edge.

Provisional model lean: Huddersfield Town • score illustration 1-2 • 1X2 baseline 28% / 27% / 45%.

Context: Huddersfield are second, unbeaten in five (3W, 2D), with a 10-4 goal record and fresh attacking options after midweek rotation.

Availability: Huddersfield miss Roughan, Whatmough, Kane and McGuane; Mansfield miss Bowery and Cargill, with McLaughlin and Russell doubtful.

Adversarial check: Mansfield have won both home league matches, scoring seven; Huddersfield injuries prevent an extreme rating.

Provisional model lean: Bradford City • score illustration 1-2 • 1X2 baseline 31% / 31% / 38%.

Context: Bradford have won successive matches, including a midweek cup win; Notts remain unbeaten but four of five league games were draws.

Availability: Notts defender James Gibbons is expected out; Bradford have continuity around Beesley, Sarcevic and Pointon.

Adversarial check: Notts are unbeaten and have avoided defeat in the last five meetings; Bradford had a shorter recovery window.

Provisional model lean: Leyton Orient • score illustration 2-1 • 1X2 baseline 48% / 27% / 25%.

Context: Orient have scored 10 in five league games. Wycombe are winless, 23rd, and begin an interim-manager transition after a 5-1 loss.

Availability: Orient had a midweek cup game; Wycombe have managerial uncertainty rather than a proven bounce.

Adversarial check: Wycombe have drawn three of five and scored seven; the change could simplify roles and improve effort.

Provisional model lean: Blackpool • score illustration 2-0 • 1X2 baseline 51% / 26% / 23%.

Context: Bromley have conceded 14 across their last three matches and sit 21st with a -11 goal difference; Blackpool have the stronger home baseline.

Availability: Blackpool miss Horsfall, Ihiekwe and Dale Taylor; Bromley miss goalkeeper Grant Smith and long-term absentee Ashley Charles.

Adversarial check: Blackpool have lost their last two league games and their own absences keep their FIS near neutral.

Provisional model lean: MK Dons • score illustration 1-1 • 1X2 baseline 39% / 31% / 30%.

Context: MK Dons are winless but have drawn four of five; Peterborough have scored only three league goals and lost three of five.

Availability: MK Dons have multiple absences and doubts; Peterborough also carry defensive and forward fitness concerns.

Adversarial check: Peterborough have won four of the last five meetings; neither side has a clean contextual advantage.