PREMIER BETTING TIPS • FOOTBALL GUIDES
Updated 4 October 2026
Quick answer: A straight win loses if the match is drawn. Draw No Bet returns the stake on a draw. Double chance covering your team or the draw wins in either case. Those different payouts usually come with different prices; more draw protection does not automatically mean better value.
Examples use invented probabilities and decimal odds, ordinary cash stakes and no fees. They are not Premier Betting Tips predictions or performance claims.
What happens if your team wins, draws or loses?
For the table below, “double chance” means backing your selected team to win or draw. Check the market period and operator rules.
| Match result for selected team | Straight win | Draw No Bet | Team or draw double chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins | Win | Win | Win |
| Draws | Loss | Stake returned | Win |
| Loses | Loss | Loss | Loss |
Draw No Bet is commonly abbreviated DNB. The Smarkets DNB explanation describes the draw refund. Double chance covers two of the three match-result outcomes, rather than refunding one.
Understand the double chance labels
| Label | Winning results | Losing result |
|---|---|---|
| 1X | Home win or draw | Away win |
| X2 | Draw or away win | Home win |
| 12 | Home win or away win | Draw |
“12” excludes the draw; it is not draw protection. Home and away refer to the fixture listing, not necessarily the physical venue. Do not add the implied probabilities of 1X, X2 and 12 to calculate an ordinary market overround: these selections overlap.
A £10 settlement example
Suppose the available prices are straight win 2.30, DNB 1.70 and team-or-draw double chance 1.30:
| Outcome | Straight win at 2.30 | DNB at 1.70 | Double chance at 1.30 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Selected team wins | £23 return; +£13 profit | £17 return; +£7 profit | £13 return; +£3 profit |
| Draw | £0 return; −£10 | £10 return; £0 profit | £13 return; +£3 profit |
| Selected team loses | £0 return; −£10 | £0 return; −£10 | £0 return; −£10 |
Returns include any returned stake. Profit subtracts the original stake. The extra protection in this illustration reduces the profit when the selected team wins, but all three bets can still lose the entire £10 if the team loses.
Compare value using the same outcome probabilities
Assume your estimate is 45% team win, 30% draw and 25% team loss. These sum to 100%. With the prices above:
| Market | Expected net profit on £10 | Estimated return on stake |
|---|---|---|
| Straight win | 0.45 × £13 − 0.55 × £10 = +£0.35 | +3.5% |
| DNB | 0.45 × £7 + 0.30 × £0 − 0.25 × £10 = +£0.65 | +6.5% |
| Team or draw | 0.75 × £3 − 0.25 × £10 = −£0.25 | −2.5% |
In this invented example, DNB has the highest estimated expected return. Double chance wins in more outcomes but has negative estimated value at 1.30. Change the prices or probabilities and the ranking can change. The estimate itself may be wrong, and a positive expected value does not guarantee any particular result.
Fair odds and break-even probabilities
Let pW, pD and pL represent the selected team’s win, draw and loss probabilities. Before fees:
- Straight win: fair odds = 1 ÷ pW.
- DNB: fair odds = (pW + pL) ÷ pW = 1 + pL ÷ pW.
- Team-or-draw double chance: fair odds = 1 ÷ (pW + pD).
For the 45% / 30% / 25% example, these prices are approximately 2.22, 1.56 and 1.33 respectively. They reflect the assumed probabilities, not known true prices.
For DNB at 1.70, 1 ÷ odds gives 58.82%. Compare that with the estimated win probability conditional on a decisive result: 45% ÷ (45% + 25%) = 64.29%. Comparing 58.82% directly with the unconditional 45% win probability would ignore refunds and misstate the assessment.
Do not remove draws from actual profit records: they still matter to the amount staked and returned. Report refunds separately and disclose the ROI denominator. Our results guide explains a consistent accounting convention.
How these markets relate to Asian handicap
For the same team, match period and rules, Asian handicap 0 has the same ordinary win/draw/loss payouts as DNB. Asian handicap +0.5 wins on a team win or draw, matching team-or-draw double chance. Asian handicap −0.5 wins only on a team win, matching the straight-win condition.
Prices can differ even when the payout conditions match. Compare the actual accepted odds and fees, and verify that the market period, live-score treatment and other terms are equivalent. See the Asian handicap guide for quarter-line and partial settlements.
Where FIS, confidence and Delta help
FIS is a football assessment score, not automatically a probability of a team winning. Confidence must be interpreted according to its report definition; evidence-quality confidence is not a calibrated outcome probability. Delta (ΔFIS) is the home-versus-away FIS gap in reports using that definition, not FIS minus confidence.
Use those measures to understand the report’s direction, evidence and limitations. Choosing between these markets still requires prices and the win/draw/loss distribution. A large Delta alone does not show how likely a draw is or establish that the DNB price offers value.
Use the report carefully: Check the model version, data coverage and exact market. Do not turn FIS 80 into an 80% team-win estimate without a validated mapping. If required data is missing or the report says “no score / no bet”, do not fill the gap with an assumed probability.
Rules, fees and accumulator settlement
Standard full-time match-result markets commonly use 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties unless specified otherwise. “To qualify” is a different condition. Check the operator’s football rules; the Smarkets football rules illustrate why the market label matters.
Deduct applicable commission and charges from returns. Abandoned or postponed matches follow operator-specific rules; a postponement is not automatically a refund.
In a standard fixed-odds accumulator that treats a refunded DNB draw as a factor of 1.00, the remaining legs continue. A winning double chance leg contributes its accepted odds; a losing straight-win leg normally loses the win-only ticket. Bet builders and promotions may have different rules. Read the accumulator guide before applying a simple multiplier.
A practical comparison checklist
- Confirm the selected team, market period and settlement rules.
- Check the relevant evidence and a coherent win/draw/loss probability estimate.
- Calculate each market’s expected net return at the available price after fees.
- Check whether plausible uncertainty changes the conclusion.
- Apply affordable spending and total exposure limits; there is no requirement to bet.
- Record all selections and refunds, not just winners.
Frequently asked questions
Does Draw No Bet win when the match is drawn?
No. It normally returns the stake, producing zero net betting profit before any charges. Team-or-draw double chance wins on a draw.
Is double chance always better than a straight win?
No. It covers another outcome but usually pays a shorter price. Value depends on the probabilities, price and fees.
Which market is safest?
Team-or-draw double chance avoids a loss on a draw and DNB refunds it, but both can lose the full stake on a team loss. More protection does not guarantee profit or make a stake affordable.
Continue with our value-betting guide and bankroll management guide.
18+. Betting involves risk. Only use money you can afford to lose and never chase losses. Forecasts and scores do not guarantee outcomes.
