Championship Over 1.5 Goals Report
Saturday 19 September 2026 — fresh 08:00 UK-time analysis using the PBT 100-point framework.
Main-selection threshold: 80/100. Priority: 85+. Price must offer value versus model probability.
Ranked board
| # | Fixture | PBT | Model O1.5 | Observed price | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Millwall v West Ham | 92 | 90% | 1.17 (85.5%) | QUALIFIES — Elite |
| 2 | Burnley v Derby | 89 | 81% | 1.28 (78.1%) | QUALIFIES — Very Strong |
| 3 | Wrexham v Southampton | 87 | 83% | 1.25 (80.0%) | QUALIFIES — Very Strong |
| 4 | Birmingham v Middlesbrough | 86 | 79% | 1.20 (83.3%) | NO BET — price fails value |
| 5 | Stoke v Sheffield United | 82 | 79% | Not reliably captured | WATCH — needs ≥1.30 |
| 6 | Portsmouth v Blackburn | 79 | 72% | Not reliably captured | Watchlist |
| 7 | QPR v Preston | 77 | 71% | 1.25 (80.0%) | REJECT |
| 8 | Lincoln v Swansea | 76 | 73% | Not reliably captured | REJECT |
| 9 | Cardiff v Charlton | 73 | 72% | 1.20–1.22 | REJECT |
1. Millwall v West Ham — 92/100
West Ham lead the division after seven games and have scored 20 league goals. Their recent league run includes 6–0 Wrexham, 3–2 Bolton, 3–0 Derby and 4–2 Wolves. Millwall have scored 13 and conceded 13. The observed 1.17 price implies 85.5%.
PBT call: Over 1.5 qualifies, though the edge is modest at a short price.
2. Burnley v Derby — 89/100
Burnley have scored 8 and conceded 16 in seven league games; all five of their latest league matches cleared 1.5. Derby’s recent run includes 1–2 Birmingham, 0–3 West Ham and 0–3 Swansea. The 1.28 price implies 78.1% versus an 81% PBT estimate.
PBT call: Very Strong qualifier.
3. Wrexham v Southampton — 87/100
Southampton have scored 18 in seven and all five recent league games cleared 1.5: 4–1, 3–1, 1–1, 1–1 and 5–1. Wrexham have just conceded six at West Ham. Price 1.25 implies 80% versus an 83% PBT estimate.
PBT call: Very Strong qualifier.
Other fixtures
Birmingham v Middlesbrough — 86: strong goal evidence, but 1.20 requires 83.3% and the blended estimate is lower. Price rule blocks the bet.
Stoke v Sheffield United — 82: statistically eligible; no sufficiently reliable live O1.5 quote captured. Consider only around 1.30+.
Portsmouth v Blackburn — 79: below publication threshold.
QPR v Preston — 77: roughly 71% O1.5 versus 80% implied at 1.25; reject.
Lincoln v Swansea — 76: O1.5 around 73%; below threshold.
Cardiff v Charlton — 73: roughly 72% O1.5 versus 82–83% implied; reject.
PBT multiple shortlist
Millwall v West Ham O1.5 + Burnley v Derby O1.5 + Wrexham v Southampton O1.5.
All three score 85+, satisfying the strategy’s stricter accumulator rule. Re-check prices and confirmed line-ups before kickoff.
Method
Weights: team O1.5 profile 25, home/away goal profile 20, recent form 15, scoring/conceding consistency 15, xG/xGA 10, league environment 5, situational factors 5, price/value 5. Fresh fixture, results, model, team-context and market data were checked during the 08:00 run.
For research and educational use. Statistical patterns do not guarantee future results. Gamble responsibly.