Match date: Tuesday 3 November 2026 · All kick-offs UK time (GMT).
Premier Betting Tips · AI-assisted research and drafting. Independent human editorial review has not been verified. FootyStats snapshot: 15:51:58 GMT, 3 November 2026.
Championship home, draw and away watchlist
Birmingham, QPR and Sheffield United head the price-based ranking. QPR have the clearest venue-form edge of the nine fixtures. The official EFL fixture list and referee appointments agree on the nine kick-offs. None was marked postponed in the checked listings.
| Fixture | GMT | 1 / X / 2 | Venue PPG | Market lean | Market share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham City v Millwall | 20:00 | 1.91 / 3.60 / 3.23 | 1.67 / 1.17 | Home | 47.1% |
| Derby County v Norwich City | 19:45 | 3.30 / 3.70 / 2.05 | 0.33 / 1 | Away | 46.0% |
| Preston North End v Sheffield United | 19:45 | 3.15 / 3.43 / 1.93 | 0.67 / 1.33 | Away | 46.0% |
| Queens Park Rangers v Burnley | 19:45 | 2.02 / 3.70 / 2.98 | 1.83 / 0.67 | Home | 45.0% |
| Charlton Athletic v Bolton Wanderers | 19:45 | 2.25 / 3.63 / 3.00 | 1.5 / 1.33 | Home | 42.2% |
| West Bromwich Albion v Southampton | 20:00 | 2.43 / 3.50 / 3.00 | 1.83 / 1.33 | Home | 39.9% |
| Watford v Lincoln City | 19:45 | 2.45 / 3.40 / 2.65 | 1.67 / 1.67 | Home | 37.8% |
| Blackburn Rovers v Stoke City | 19:45 | 2.45 / 3.25 / 2.40 | 2 / 1.67 | Away | 36.8% |
| Portsmouth v Swansea City | 19:45 | 2.63 / 3.21 / 2.60 | 1.67 / 2 | Away | 35.7% |
What supports the leading leans?
Birmingham City to win
Birmingham have the shortest home price on the slate and a 0.50-point venue PPG edge. Millwall’s 1.17 away PPG is stronger than Burnley’s or Derby’s relevant venue figure, so the venue comparison gives Birmingham less separation than QPR have.
QPR to win
QPR’s 1.83 home PPG against Burnley’s 0.67 away PPG gives the largest venue gap in this slate. The figures are season snapshots and have not been adjusted for opponent quality. Burnley’s away record alone gives limited evidence about how they will handle this particular matchup.
Sheffield United to win
Sheffield United’s 1.33 away PPG compares favourably with Preston’s 0.67 at home. The case relies partly on Preston’s poor home return, while United’s own away record leaves room for a draw.
Where price and form disagree
Stoke are marginally shorter than Blackburn despite trailing on venue PPG. Watford and Lincoln are level on venue PPG. Both games offer weaker separation than the leading watchlist fixtures.
Methodology and Market Fit
Market share divides the reciprocal of the selection’s decimal odds by the sum of all three reciprocals. It is a margin-normalised market benchmark. FootyStats supplied indicative odds and pre-match venue PPG. The snapshot does not establish a currently obtainable bookmaker price. Opponent-adjusted form, rest differences and confirmed starting teams were not verified.
Under Situational Match Analysis Strategy 5 v2.0, FIS grades contextual evidence and PCS grades confidence in the exact market proposition. Neither was assigned because the required inputs were incomplete. Market Fit stays at WATCH for the leading leans pending confirmed teams, price verification and scenario checks. No accumulator qualifies.
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