LATEST DATA REFRESH · 5 OCTOBER 2026 · 19:45 BST
Starting elevens are available; the original accumulators remain historical paper tests
This update adds retrieved starting elevens for five evening matches, a reported XI for Ukraine–Hungary, and the reported Cyprus–Latvia score. It preserves the original 16:28 pre-match analysis below. Source retrieval took place between 19:43 and 19:45 BST; the displayed time is the evidence cutoff, not a live feed.
Cyprus–Latvia: reported score 2–1
Sky’s retrieved match page displays Cyprus 2–1 Latvia, including a 94th-minute home goal. It reports shots 19–12 and shots on target 7–1. Other search extracts of the same fixture still show 0–0 lineup placeholders; this is a source-freshness conflict. The score is labelled reported, final status not independently confirmed.
Cyprus’s original draw-no-bet research idea is compatible with the reported score, but it is not recorded as a settled or validated wager. No new FIS is assigned after the match; Cyprus is excluded from the evening research ranking and from all accumulator structures. Group totals below remain the original three-match baseline until the result is independently confirmed.
Updated FIS and information-confidence board
| Rank | Evening fixture | Home / away provisional FIS | Information confidence | Lineup evidence | PCS / execution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| =1 | Bosnia and Herzegovina v Poland | 52.5 / 52.5 | 75/100 | Starting XIs retrieved | Unscored / pre-match window reached |
| =1 | France v Belgium | 52.5 / 52.5 | 75/100 | Starting XIs retrieved | Unscored / pre-match window reached |
| =1 | Italy v Türkiye | 52.5 / 52.5 | 75/100 | XIs corroborated | Unscored / pre-match window reached |
| =1 | Northern Ireland v Georgia | 52.5 / 52.5 | 75/100 | Starting XIs retrieved | Unscored / pre-match window reached |
| =1 | Romania v Sweden | 52.5 / 52.5 | 75/100 | Starting XIs retrieved | Unscored / pre-match window reached |
| =6 | Montenegro v Armenia | 50.0 / 50.0 | 50/100 | No usable XI retrieved | Unscored / pre-match window reached |
| =6 | Ukraine v Hungary | 50.0 / 50.0 | 50/100 | XIs reported; partial corroboration | Unscored / pre-match window reached |
France and Northern Ireland remain at 52.5 / 52.5. Italy, Romania and Bosnia pairs rise from 50.0 / 50.0 to 52.5 / 52.5 solely because their information-integrity inputs rise from 50 to 75 after team sheets were obtained. Montenegro and Ukraine pairs retain 50.0 / 50.0. All team differentials remain zero; the grade change measures coverage and supplies no new football or price edge.
The original weighted worksheet remains in use: six unresolved categories are held at the disclosed 50 prior; information integrity is 75 for the first five pairs and 50 for the other two. Thus 90% × 50 + 10% × 75 = 52.5, or 90% × 50 + 10% × 50 = 50.0. Coverage confidence is the lower of the two integrity grades. Scores remain analyst estimates; PCS is not calculated from them.
Fresh team-sheet evidence
France v Belgium
Home starting list: Restes, Koundé, Yoro, Lacroix, A. Diouf, Akliouche, Koné, Camavinga, Dembélé, Lepaul, Barcola.
Away starting list: Vandevoordt, Castagne, Ngoy, Mechele, Seys, Raskin, Lavia, Vanaken, Lukebakio, Lukaku, da Silva Moreira.
Sky lists Olise among the substitutes, so the earlier Olise-led starting-attack assumption is withdrawn. Reuters confirms both De Bruyne and Tielemans are suspended. Belgium’s midfield replacements are now named; their effectiveness is not established.
Northern Ireland v Georgia
Home starting list: P. Charles, Atcheson, McConville, C. Brown, Hume, S. Charles, Galbraith, Devenny, Kelly, Donley, Price.
Away starting list: Mamardashvili, Sazonov, Dvali, Lochoshvili, Kakabadze, Mekvabishvili, Kochorashvili, Mamageishvili, Davitashvili, Zivzivadze, Kvaratskhelia.
Both teams’ starting elevens are now available. Georgia list Kvaratskhelia as captain and starter, an attacking threat to challenge Northern Ireland’s clean-sheet narrative. The original non-loss idea is retained only as a historical paper-test proposition.
Italy v Türkiye
Home starting list: Donnarumma, Di Lorenzo, Mancini, Bastoni, Ruggeri, Barella, Romano, Doumbia, Vergara, Scamacca, Maldini.
Away starting list: U. Çakır, Zeki Çelik, Elmalı, Kabak, Bardakcı, Kadıoğlu, Akgün, Yüksek, Özcan, Kahveci, Şimşir.
Sky’s starting eleven agrees with Football Italia’s published team sheet. Italy’s changed attacking unit includes Scamacca, Vergara and Maldini. A previous 4–1 win does not prove the new combination will reproduce that performance.
Romania v Sweden
Home starting list: Hindrich, Rațiu, Coubis, Ilie, Bancu, M. Marin, Dragomir, Stanciu, Man, Olaru, Tănase.
Away starting list: Johansson, Beijmo, E. Smith, Lindelöf, Gudmundsson, Bernhardsson, Karlström, Bergvall, Nanasi, Zeneli, Gyökeres.
Gyökeres is listed to start. Stroud appears among the substitutes, so the 1 October illness article cannot be used as a blanket list of today’s absences. Sweden’s availability uncertainty is reduced, but replacement quality and price value remain unresolved.
Bosnia and Herzegovina v Poland
Home starting list: Zlomislić, Katić, Smajlović, Muharemović, Kolašinac, Memić, Bašić, Gigović, Mahmić, Demirović, Tabaković.
Away starting list: Bułka, Cash, Bednarek, Kiwior, Frankowski, Zieliński, Nowak, Świderski, Szymański, Zalewski, Żukowski.
The starting lists give Demirović and Tabaković for Bosnia, and Żukowski for Poland. No Lewandowski-led starting attack is assumed. This remains an unresolved outcome rather than an automatic draw pick.
Ukraine v Hungary
Home starting list: Trubin, Mykhavko, Sarapii, Zabarnyi, Krupskyi, Nazaryna, Ocheretko, Veleten, Tsygankov, Ponomarenko, Krasnopir.
Away starting list: B. Tóth, Osváth, Szoboszlai, Csinger, Vitális, Z. Nagy, Orbán, Schäfer, M. Tóth, Lukács, A. Tóth.
Oddschecker supplies both elevens and identifies the venue in Trnava. Its Hungary formation remains unconfirmed, while Sky’s retrieved page supplied no XI to corroborate the list. Keep the information grade at 50 and do not assume normal Ukrainian home advantage.
Montenegro v Armenia
Sky corroborates the scheduled fixture, venue and prior form, but the retrieved page supplies no starting XI. Both teams’ lineups remain unverified in this refresh.
What changed for the accumulator ideas
- 3-leg original: France 1X + Italy 1X + Northern Ireland 1X.
- 4-leg original: add Montenegro 1X.
- 5-leg original: add Sweden X2.
The combinations are preserved for tracking, rather than repriced or promoted as fresh pre-match tickets. France’s Olise starting-role assumption no longer applies. Italy’s changed frontline is verified. Gyökeres is named for Sweden, while Stroud’s bench inclusion changes the blanket illness warning. Montenegro’s missing team-sheet evidence continues to weaken the fourth and fifth structures.
Starting lists reduce one uncertainty, but the independent outcome model, exact double-chance prices, three comparable bookmaker snapshots and quantitative scenario assessment remain unavailable. No combined probability, accumulator PCS or payout is claimed. These heavily overlapping tickets are research alternatives, not independent recommendations.
Price check
Ladbrokes’ Northern Ireland–Georgia page displays 13/10 home, 2/1 draw and 21/10 away under an enhanced early-payout market. These are retrieved page quotes, with no supplier quote timestamp, and are not standard double-chance prices or evidence of a live executable price. They are excluded from no-margin and accumulator calculations because the settlement terms differ.
Source and uncertainty notes
Five starting lists come from Sky’s match pages. Italy’s list was corroborated against Football Italia’s 5 October team-sheet article. Ukraine’s lists come from Oddschecker’s 18:09 article; that page’s speculative bet-builder is not adopted. Reuters, 3 October 07:40 UTC, supports Belgium’s two suspensions. Publication times were not exposed for Sky’s pages. UEFA’s directly retrieved match pages again supplied no usable XI text.
Verification limits: live minutes and actual starting whistles were not confirmed; Cyprus’s final status needs corroboration; Montenegro’s XIs were unavailable; lineups alone cannot establish replacement quality, reliable probabilities or price value. This is a static timestamped update, not continuous monitoring.
Original pre-match snapshot · 16:28 BST · preserved for audit
The following report and accumulator combinations record the evidence available earlier today. The update above supersedes its current-data and lineup statements; the historical scores and propositions are preserved.
Premier Betting Tips · Strategy 5 v2.0 · 5 October 2026
UEFA Nations League: today’s eight games ranked by provisional FIS
Monday 5 October 2026 · UK times (BST) · Evidence reviewed at 16:28 BST.
Confidence: the numerical column below grades information coverage, following the earlier PBT report convention. It is separate from the Strategy 5 Prediction Confidence Score (PCS), which remains unavailable for every market because an independent baseline, comparable price snapshots and complete lineup evidence were not obtained. No fabricated confidence percentage is supplied.
Ranked match board
Descending maximum team FIS, then information confidence. Equal ranks are preserved; alphabetical order arranges display ties. Every figure is a provisional neutral-prior worksheet estimate.
| Rank | Fixture / BST | Home FIS | Away FIS | Δ H−A | Information confidence | PCS / Market Fit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| =1 | France v Belgium 19:45 · A1 |
52.5 | 52.5 | 0.0 | 75/100 | Unscored / PENDING |
| =1 | Northern Ireland v Georgia 19:45 · B2 |
52.5 | 52.5 | 0.0 | 75/100 | Unscored / PENDING |
| =3 | Bosnia and Herzegovina v Poland 19:45 · B4 |
50.0 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 50/100 | Unscored / PENDING |
| =3 | Cyprus v Latvia 17:00 · C2 |
50.0 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 50/100 | Unscored / PENDING |
| =3 | Italy v Türkiye 19:45 · A1 |
50.0 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 50/100 | Unscored / PENDING |
| =3 | Montenegro v Armenia 19:45 · C2 |
50.0 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 50/100 | Unscored / PENDING |
| =3 | Romania v Sweden 19:45 · B4 |
50.0 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 50/100 | Unscored / PENDING |
| =3 | Ukraine v Hungary 19:45 · B2 |
50.0 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 50/100 | Unscored / PENDING |
There is no verified team FIS differential in this worksheet and no completed FIS reaches the 60 research-priority threshold. A 50 prior represents missing context, rather than proof of neutral circumstances. Numerical outcome-confidence ranking is not supported by the available evidence.
Match intelligence and markets to investigate
France v Belgium
19:45 BST · FIS 52.5 / 52.5 · Information confidence 75/100
De Bruyne’s confirmed suspension removes a key Belgian creator. France’s Olise offers a documented attacking route. Replacement roles remain unknown.
Research proposition: France draw no bet. PCS: unscored. Market Fit: pending. Uncertainty: high.
Failure case: Belgium can replace the creative role or score first; France’s recent narrow results do not justify a confident outright-win claim.
Scenario check: Expected: France control territory. Adverse: Belgium lead and defend deeper. Role surprise: Belgium’s replacement creates effectively. The latter two can overturn the lean.
Northern Ireland v Georgia
19:45 BST · FIS 52.5 / 52.5 · Information confidence 75/100
Northern Ireland have seven points and three clean sheets. Georgia have one point and no goals. Official Irish FA records corroborate Northern Ireland’s results and home venue.
Research proposition: Northern Ireland draw no bet. PCS: unscored. Market Fit: pending. Uncertainty: high.
Failure case: Three matches are a small sample. A Georgian opener could force a different match pattern; clean sheets do not establish chance quality.
Scenario check: Expected: Northern Ireland limit Georgia’s chances. Adverse: Georgia score first. Role surprise: home rotation weakens defensive continuity. Reassess the market in each case.
Bosnia and Herzegovina v Poland
19:45 BST · FIS 50.0 / 50.0 · Information confidence 50/100
Bosnia are unbeaten; Poland’s latest result was emphatic. Their first meeting was scoreless. Neither the home narrative nor one large win establishes a reliable edge.
Research proposition: No preferred market. PCS: unscored. Market Fit: pending. Uncertainty: high.
Failure case: Poland’s latest score may overstate repeatable attacking quality; Bosnia’s unbeaten record may overstate defensive security.
Scenario check: Expected: competitive game. Adverse: an early goal changes tempo. Role surprise: a changed attack changes chance creation. No proposition has demonstrated robustness.
Cyprus v Latvia
17:00 BST · FIS 50.0 / 50.0 · Information confidence 50/100
Cyprus have four points versus Latvia’s one. Latvia are yet to win. The previous meeting ended level; a home-side lean remains tentative.
Research proposition: Cyprus draw no bet. PCS: unscored. Market Fit: pending. Uncertainty: high.
Failure case: A prior draw offers no assurance of another low-event game. Early Latvian scoring would weaken the home proposition.
Scenario check: Expected: Cyprus compete for control. Adverse: Latvia score first. Role surprise: altered home midfield roles. Goals markets need separate evidence.
Italy v Türkiye
19:45 BST · FIS 50.0 / 50.0 · Information confidence 50/100
Italy recovered after their opening loss, then drew in France. Türkiye have lost all three. Italy’s direction is plausible, but the contextual components are incomplete.
Research proposition: Italy draw no bet. PCS: unscored. Market Fit: pending. Uncertainty: high.
Failure case: Türkiye’s results alone cannot establish the next match’s chance profile. Rotation or an early away goal can defeat the win thesis.
Scenario check: Expected: Italy control. Adverse: Türkiye lead. Role surprise: Italy rotate important attacking roles. Draw protection helps settlement, but does not prove value.
Montenegro v Armenia
19:45 BST · FIS 50.0 / 50.0 · Information confidence 50/100
Montenegro have nine points from three wins; Armenia have three. Montenegro’s previous away win supports a form-led research lean rather than a completed tactical score.
Research proposition: Montenegro draw no bet. PCS: unscored. Market Fit: pending. Uncertainty: high.
Failure case: All three Montenegro wins were by one goal. A perfect record can conceal narrow margins and substantial match uncertainty.
Scenario check: Expected: Montenegro compete strongly. Adverse: Armenia score first. Role surprise: rotation reduces continuity. The prior away win does not settle any scenario.
Romania v Sweden
19:45 BST · FIS 50.0 / 50.0 · Information confidence 50/100
Sweden are unbeaten; Romania have lost three. Gyökeres’ scoring run supports an attacking research lead. Earlier Sweden illness reports require a current squad check.
Research proposition: Sweden draw no bet. PCS: unscored. Market Fit: pending. Uncertainty: high.
Failure case: Sweden’s availability may weaken the away case. Romania’s heavy latest defeat should not be treated as a repeatable score forecast.
Scenario check: Expected: Sweden create chances. Adverse: Romania lead. Role surprise: illness changes Sweden’s attacking or defensive roles. Obtain confirmed teams before strengthening the lean.
Ukraine v Hungary
19:45 BST · FIS 50.0 / 50.0 · Information confidence 50/100
Both have four points. Ukraine won the previous meeting, but their latest defeat and Hungary’s recent win make the directional evidence mixed.
Research proposition: No preferred market. PCS: unscored. Market Fit: pending. Uncertainty: high.
Failure case: A previous win does not establish current dominance. The nominal home designation is not evidence of ordinary home advantage.
Scenario check: Expected: closely contested. Adverse: either side leads early. Role surprise: venue or lineup changes alter the matchup. Keep the outcome unresolved.
Accumulator combinations — provisional paper tests
These combinations use double chance: 1X means the home side wins or draws; X2 means the away side wins or draws. Each ticket loses if any leg loses. The choices are qualitative form-led research leans, not outputs of a calibrated probability model.
3-leg: core combination
- France 1X v Belgium
- Italy 1X v Türkiye
- Northern Ireland 1X v Georgia
Seven-point group leaders France and Northern Ireland supply the non-loss direction; Italy’s recent recovery supports the third leg. Belgium’s creator suspension is relevant, but replacements can weaken that argument.
Failure points: Belgium can still win; Italy’s opening home defeat shows vulnerability; Northern Ireland’s record is based on three games.
4-leg: add Montenegro
All three core legs, plus Montenegro 1X v Armenia.
Montenegro’s perfect record supports investigation, but every group win has been narrow. The fourth leg adds another way for the ticket to fail.
5-leg: speculative extension
All four legs, plus Sweden X2 at Romania.
Sweden’s unbeaten record supports the non-loss direction. Current illness and replacement-role checks remain essential; this is the weakest addition by information completeness.
Ticket status
Combined odds: unavailable.
Combined success probability: uncalibrated.
Accumulator PCS: unscored.
Market Fit: PENDING.
Stake recommendation: none.
These tickets overlap heavily. They are alternative research structures, rather than independent bets. No payout or value claim can be made without exact double-chance prices.
Three-match group form
Completed games through 2 October; W/D/L shown oldest to newest. Points use three per win and one per draw. GF/GA are goals scored/conceded. This short sample describes results; it does not establish tactical strength.
| Team | Form | Points | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | WWD | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| Belgium | WLW | 6 | 5 | 1 |
| Northern Ireland | WDW | 7 | 4 | 0 |
| Georgia | LDL | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | DWD | 5 | 5 | 3 |
| Poland | DLW | 4 | 7 | 3 |
| Cyprus | LDW | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Latvia | LDL | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| Italy | LWD | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| Türkiye | LLL | 0 | 1 | 8 |
| Montenegro | WWW | 9 | 7 | 4 |
| Armenia | WLL | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| Romania | LLL | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| Sweden | WWD | 7 | 6 | 3 |
| Ukraine | WDL | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| Hungary | LDW | 4 | 1 | 1 |
Auditable FIS worksheet
Weights are retained from your Situation(1).pdf, Strategy 5 v2.0 (20 September). Team subscores use 0, 25, 50, 75 or 100. FIS = Σ(weight × subscore) ÷ 100. No prior match’s numerical rating has been carried forward.
| Component | Weight | France, Belgium, Northern Ireland, Georgia | Other 12 teams |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stakes and incentives | 18 | 50 prior | 50 prior |
| Availability and lineup leverage | 22 | 50 prior | 50 prior |
| Recovery, travel and rotation | 15 | 50 prior | 50 prior |
| Tactical and managerial fit | 15 | 50 prior | 50 prior |
| Team environment | 10 | 50 prior | 50 prior |
| Information integrity | 10 | 75 estimate | 50 estimate |
| Market intelligence | 10 | 50 prior | 50 prior |
| Weighted total | 100 | 52.5 | 50.0 |
The neutral-prior convention is an explicitly disclosed reporting assumption, not a completed Strategy 5 assessment or a rule in the PDF. At least 90% of each total remains unresolved. A ±25 change across these unresolved inputs would move FIS by ±22.5: the displayed ranking is fragile.
Information confidence = the lower team information-integrity grade. The 75 estimates reflect an official, dated match-specific preview for France–Belgium and corroboration across UEFA and Irish FA for Northern Ireland–Georgia. Other pairs remain at 50 because squad, role and price coverage is limited. These are analyst coverage grades, not empirical probabilities.
De Bruyne’s absence is verified, but its numerical football effect remains unscored: replacement quality and France’s final lineup are unresolved. Results alone are not converted into tactical adjustments. Earlier Sweden illness is flagged for review, without assuming every affected player remains absent today.
Prediction confidence and execution status
The PCS weights are baseline agreement 30, market benchmark 20, lineup certainty 15, scenario robustness 20, context support 10 and price stability 5. No PCS total is calculated from unsupported components. Baseline H/D/A, no-margin market benchmark, exact entry prices and minimum acceptable odds are unavailable.
The pre-match protocol is incomplete: narratives were researched without first capturing three comparable prices and running a fixed independent model. The qualitative scenarios above are challenges to investigate; they do not establish probabilities. All propositions remain research only. No wager or accumulator qualifies as an executable selection in this edition. The requested combinations are included above as provisional paper tests.
Source record
- UEFA fixtures and results — Today’s eight fixtures; kick-off slots and prior results.
- UEFA team results — Three completed group games per team; table statistics calculated from those results.
- UEFA Matchday 4 preview — De Bruyne suspension, Olise and Gyökeres context, and Montenegro’s record.
- Irish FA fixture and result record — Corroborates Northern Ireland’s results, Windsor Park venue and 19:45 BST kick-off.
- Reuters, 1 October: Sweden illness — Historical availability warning only; not proof of today’s final squad.
UEFA articles show 5 October 2026 as their latest date; individual publication times are unavailable. The timestamp above records retrieval and review, rather than a live-data feed. Official match pages returned no usable starting elevens. Times use the UEFA continental slot, cross-checked against the Irish FA’s 19:45 BST listing; Cyprus’s earlier slot converts to 17:00 BST.
Framework: user-supplied Strategy 5 v2.0. National-team application retains the original weights; “team environment” replaces the club-specific label without inventing a club-context adjustment. Preserve this dated record; append later evidence as a new snapshot.
