League Two.
Poisson value report.
Eight scheduled matches analysed using your Value.pdf singles strategy. Numerical edges are shown with explicit checks for small-sample instability.
Provisional pre-match analysis
Crewe is the clearest model disagreement
Most stable numerical candidate
Crewe home win • 3.10
The raw model assigns a 50.5% home-win probability against a 32.3% break-even probability at the quoted price. The edge remains around 19 percentage points when league-average evidence is added.
This makes Crewe the first match to review further, rather than a fully validated bet. Its attacking lineup and recent low shot output still matter.
Where the model is fragile
Large edges need scrutiny
Cheltenham’s away win, Exeter–Rotherham’s draw and Salford–Fleetwood’s draw fail the 5-point hurdle under stronger smoothing. Rochdale’s enormous raw edge includes a zero-goal artefact and should not be used literally.
Passing a sensitivity screen does not establish calibration, profitability or independent evidence of an edge.
1X2 value screen
Each row shows the outcome with the largest raw probability edge in that game. Hurdle: model probability minus 1 / decimal odds must be at least 5 percentage points. EV is a separate model estimate of return per unit staked.
| Match / candidate | Decimal | Raw probability | Raw edge | Raw EV | Edge, k=4 | Edge, k=8 | Sensitivity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield – Tranmere Tranmere win | 5.00 | 29.5% | +9.5 pp | 47.3% | +6.8 pp | +5.8 pp | Passes all |
| Accrington – Cheltenham Cheltenham win | 2.95 | 59.4% | +25.4 pp | 74.9% | +6.9 pp | +0.8 pp | Sensitive |
| Crewe – Bristol Rovers Crewe win | 3.10 | 50.5% | +18.3 pp | 56.6% | +19.2 pp | +19.2 pp | Passes all |
| Exeter – Rotherham Draw | 3.60 | 49.5% | +21.7 pp | 78.0% | +5.6 pp | +2.3 pp | Sensitive |
| Gillingham – Newport Gillingham win | 2.20 | 58.0% | +12.5 pp | 27.6% | +9.4 pp | +8.3 pp | Passes all |
| Grimsby – Shrewsbury Grimsby win | 1.71 | 86.1% | +27.7 pp | 47.6% | +13.5 pp | +7.2 pp | Passes all |
| Rochdale – Swindon Rochdale win | 2.25 | 89.2% | +44.7 pp | 100.6% | +23.3 pp | +17.1 pp | Passes all |
| Salford – Fleetwood Draw | 4.20 | 34.8% | +11.0 pp | 46.0% | +5.3 pp | +3.9 pp | Sensitive |
k=4 and k=8 add four or eight league-average pseudo-matches to each venue rate. These are disclosed sensitivity choices, not rules in your PDF or fitted optimal parameters. All rows remain provisional. Odds are a retrieved comparison-coupon snapshot, not guaranteed executable prices.
Match-by-match analysis
12:30 BST / 3 October
Chesterfield vs Tranmere
The price makes Chesterfield a clear favourite, but the venue-only model is much less convinced. Tranmere is the numerical value side rather than the most likely winner. Its edge survives the selected smoothing scenarios, although the strongest shrinkage leaves little room above the threshold.
| Outcome | Quoted odds | Break-even | Raw probability | k=4 probability | k=8 probability | Raw fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 8/11 / 1.73 | 57.9% | 41.3% | 46.0% | 47.6% | 2.42 |
| Draw | 16/5 / 4.20 | 23.8% | 29.3% | 27.2% | 26.6% | 3.42 |
| Away win | 4/1 / 5.00 | 20.0% | 29.5% | 26.8% | 25.8% | 3.40 |
Numerical candidate: Tranmere win. Raw minimum price for the ≥5 pp hurdle: 4.09 (rounded display; calculate on unrounded values). Raw full Kelly: 11.8%; PDF cap would reduce this to 5.0%. These figures illustrate the supplied formula; current report stake: 0% until the validation gaps are resolved.
Reported team news: The preview reports no fresh injury concerns for either side. Starting elevens remain unconfirmed in the material reviewed. Racing Post, updated 2 October, 16:00.
15:00 BST / 3 October
Accrington vs Cheltenham
The raw away-win probability is driven by the visitors’ attack against the home defence. Shrinking both rates toward the league mean removes most of that edge. Treat the large raw estimate as a sample-sensitive signal.
| Outcome | Quoted odds | Break-even | Raw probability | k=4 probability | k=8 probability | Raw fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 7/5 / 2.40 | 41.7% | 22.8% | 36.4% | 41.3% | 4.38 |
| Draw | 13/5 / 3.60 | 27.8% | 17.8% | 22.8% | 23.9% | 5.61 |
| Away win | 37/19 / 2.95 | 33.9% | 59.4% | 40.8% | 34.7% | 1.68 |
Numerical candidate: Cheltenham win. Raw minimum price for the ≥5 pp hurdle: 1.84 (rounded display; calculate on unrounded values). Raw full Kelly: 38.5%; PDF cap would reduce this to 5.0%. These figures illustrate the supplied formula; current report stake: 0% until the validation gaps are resolved.
Reported team news: Accrington may change midfield after Liam Coyle was substituted at half-time. Cheltenham goalkeeper Wyll Stanway made 12 saves last weekend; a strong result alone can conceal defensive pressure. Sports Mole, 1 October.
15:00 BST / 3 October
Crewe vs Bristol Rovers
Crewe is the most stable candidate: its home-win estimate barely changes under smoothing. The market favours the visitors, creating the model disagreement. Confirm Crewe’s attacking selection; the last match’s lack of shots on target is a relevant counterpoint.
| Outcome | Quoted odds | Break-even | Raw probability | k=4 probability | k=8 probability | Raw fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 21/10 / 3.10 | 32.3% | 50.5% | 51.4% | 51.5% | 1.98 |
| Draw | 13/5 / 3.60 | 27.8% | 25.1% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 3.98 |
| Away win | 13/10 / 2.30 | 43.5% | 24.4% | 23.6% | 23.5% | 4.10 |
Numerical candidate: Crewe win. Raw minimum price for the ≥5 pp hurdle: 2.20 (rounded display; calculate on unrounded values). Raw full Kelly: 26.9%; PDF cap would reduce this to 5.0%. These figures illustrate the supplied formula; current report stake: 0% until the validation gaps are resolved.
Reported team news: Bristol Rovers’ Jack Sparkes is reported injured and unavailable. Crewe may change their attack after recording no shot on target in their last match. Sports Mole, 1 October.
15:00 BST / 3 October
Exeter vs Rotherham
The very low raw expected-goal total produces an unusually high draw probability. Adding league-average evidence raises expected scoring and cuts that draw advantage. The draw fails the 5-point test under the stronger sensitivity scenario.
| Outcome | Quoted odds | Break-even | Raw probability | k=4 probability | k=8 probability | Raw fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 8/5 / 2.60 | 38.5% | 37.2% | 45.1% | 47.2% | 2.69 |
| Draw | 13/5 / 3.60 | 27.8% | 49.5% | 33.3% | 30.1% | 2.02 |
| Away win | 19/10 / 2.90 | 34.5% | 13.4% | 21.6% | 22.7% | 7.49 |
Numerical candidate: Draw. Raw minimum price for the ≥5 pp hurdle: 2.25 (rounded display; calculate on unrounded values). Raw full Kelly: 30.0%; PDF cap would reduce this to 5.0%. These figures illustrate the supplied formula; current report stake: 0% until the validation gaps are resolved.
Reported team news: Exeter remain without Ed Turns and Sonny Cox. Rotherham have several absentees, including Lenny Agbaire, Klaidi Lolos, George Sebine and Jamie Jellis; Fabio Tavares and Ewan Otoo also missed last weekend. Sports Mole, 2 October.
15:00 BST / 3 October
Gillingham vs Newport
The home win clears the numerical hurdle across all three scenarios. The model favours Gillingham’s attacking matchup, but the reported defensive absence and suspension require a lineup review before relying on unchanged historical rates.
| Outcome | Quoted odds | Break-even | Raw probability | k=4 probability | k=8 probability | Raw fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 6/5 / 2.20 | 45.5% | 58.0% | 54.9% | 53.7% | 1.72 |
| Draw | 13/5 / 3.60 | 27.8% | 22.1% | 23.6% | 24.1% | 4.53 |
| Away win | 23/10 / 3.30 | 30.3% | 19.9% | 21.6% | 22.2% | 5.03 |
Numerical candidate: Gillingham win. Raw minimum price for the ≥5 pp hurdle: 1.89 (rounded display; calculate on unrounded values). Raw full Kelly: 23.0%; PDF cap would reduce this to 5.0%. These figures illustrate the supplied formula; current report stake: 0% until the validation gaps are resolved.
Reported team news: Gillingham’s Conor McManus is on international duty and Zane Albarus is suspended. Newport’s Tanatswa Nyakuhwa is also away on international duty. Sports Mole, 1 October.
15:00 BST / 3 October
Grimsby vs Shrewsbury
The model favours the home win in every scenario, but the raw 86% estimate is extreme for four-game inputs. Smoothing reduces it substantially. Shelton’s uncertain status is an additional reason to avoid taking the headline probability literally.
| Outcome | Quoted odds | Break-even | Raw probability | k=4 probability | k=8 probability | Raw fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 5/7 / 1.71 | 58.3% | 86.1% | 71.9% | 65.5% | 1.16 |
| Draw | 3/1 / 4.00 | 25.0% | 12.4% | 19.9% | 22.2% | 8.04 |
| Away win | 19/5 / 4.80 | 20.8% | 1.5% | 8.2% | 12.3% | 67.23 |
Numerical candidate: Grimsby win. Raw minimum price for the ≥5 pp hurdle: 1.23 (rounded display; calculate on unrounded values). Raw full Kelly: 66.6%; PDF cap would reduce this to 5.0%. These figures illustrate the supplied formula; current report stake: 0% until the validation gaps are resolved.
Reported team news: Mark Shelton was withdrawn after 36 minutes last weekend. The preview suggests a replacement but still lists Shelton in its possible XI: his availability needs confirmation. Sports Mole, 1 October.
15:00 BST / 3 October
Rochdale vs Swindon
The raw method assigns Swindon zero expected goals and therefore zero chance of winning. That is a mathematical artefact of four goalless away games, not a credible real-world impossibility. Rochdale remains a candidate after smoothing, but the unadjusted estimate should not guide staking.
| Outcome | Quoted odds | Break-even | Raw probability | k=4 probability | k=8 probability | Raw fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 5/4 / 2.25 | 44.4% | 89.2% | 67.7% | 61.5% | 1.12 |
| Draw | 14/5 / 3.80 | 26.3% | 10.8% | 20.9% | 22.8% | 9.23 |
| Away win | 2/1 / 3.00 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 11.4% | 15.7% | No finite price* |
Numerical candidate: Rochdale win. Raw minimum price for the ≥5 pp hurdle: 1.19 (rounded display; calculate on unrounded values). Raw full Kelly: 80.5%; PDF cap would reduce this to 5.0%. These figures illustrate the supplied formula; current report stake: 0% until the validation gaps are resolved.
Reported team news: Rochdale’s Tobi Adebayo-Rowling is suspended and Dan Moss is out long term. Swindon may regain Joe Snowdon, while Ben Middlemas and Joel McGregor remain sidelined. Sports Mole, 1 October.
*Zero probability is produced by the raw input, not a claim that an away victory is impossible. k=4 and k=8 explicitly remove that degeneracy.
15:00 BST / 3 October
Salford vs Fleetwood
The home side is favoured by the model but its quoted price does not clear the value hurdle. The draw is the strongest raw value outcome. Its edge drops below 5 points under stronger smoothing, so it is a fragile screen rather than a robust selection.
| Outcome | Quoted odds | Break-even | Raw probability | k=4 probability | k=8 probability | Raw fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 4/6 / 1.67 | 60.0% | 41.6% | 46.0% | 47.7% | 2.41 |
| Draw | 16/5 / 4.20 | 23.8% | 34.8% | 29.1% | 27.7% | 2.88 |
| Away win | 4/1 / 5.00 | 20.0% | 23.7% | 24.9% | 24.7% | 4.23 |
Numerical candidate: Draw. Raw minimum price for the ≥5 pp hurdle: 3.36 (rounded display; calculate on unrounded values). Raw full Kelly: 14.4%; PDF cap would reduce this to 5.0%. These figures illustrate the supplied formula; current report stake: 0% until the validation gaps are resolved.
Reported team news: Salford remain without Michael Rose. Fleetwood are missing Kane Thompson-Sommers and Andy Cannon. These are reported absences, not newly verified post-price injuries. Sports Mole, 2 October.
How the figures were calculated
Source strategy and interpretation
Your supplied Value.pdf describes independent Poisson modelling, singles only, a minimum 5% edge, Kelly sizing capped at 5% of bankroll, and at least 100 recorded bets before judging results. Its “5% edge” wording is ambiguous: this report uses 5 absolute probability points, rather than 5% expected return. Both edge and EV are displayed.
2026/27 league inputs reconcile to 94 matches and 240 goals: 148 home and 92 away. The precise scoring baselines used are 1.574468 home goals and 0.978723 away goals per match. Home goals scored reconcile with away goals conceded, and vice versa. Goal-data source.
λH = (home GF / home GP) × (away GA / away GP) / league home mean
λA = (away GF / away GP) × (home GA / home GP) / league away mean
P(goals = x) = exp(−λ) × λˣ / x!
P(score h–a) = P(home=h) × P(away=a)
Edge = p − 1/d; EV = d × p − 1; fair odds = 1/p
Kelly = max(0, (d × p − 1) / (d − 1))
The score matrix covers 0–30 goals per side. Retained probability exceeds 0.999999999999 for every scenario; home, draw and away probabilities sum to one before display rounding. Markets are standard 90-minute outcomes including stoppage time.
Sensitivity extension: rate = (observed goals + k × appropriate league venue mean) / (games + k). Home GF and away GA use the home scoring mean; away GF and home GA use the away mean. The primary column follows the raw PDF method. k=4 and k=8 are robustness scenarios, with no backtesting claim.
Inspect the venue inputs
Each entry below is games / goals scored / goals conceded. Only the home team’s home matches and the away team’s away matches enter the raw calculation.
| Fixture | Home venue input | Away venue input |
|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield – Tranmere | 4 / 6 / 5 | 4 / 3 / 5 |
| Accrington – Cheltenham | 4 / 7 / 6 | 4 / 7 / 6 |
| Crewe – Bristol Rovers | 4 / 5 / 4 | 4 / 4 / 8 |
| Exeter – Rotherham | 4 / 3 / 1 | 4 / 4 / 5 |
| Gillingham – Newport | 4 / 6 / 4 | 4 / 4 / 8 |
| Grimsby – Shrewsbury | 4 / 7 / 2 | 4 / 1 / 8 |
| Rochdale – Swindon | 4 / 7 / 6 | 4 / 0 / 8 |
| Salford – Fleetwood | 4 / 4 / 2 | 4 / 5 / 6 |
What remains unresolved
- Sample sufficiency: four venue games per team are too few to treat extreme rates as stable. No rolling 38-match, opponent-adjusted or calibrated historical model was available in this calculation.
- Lineups and exceptions: previews are dated 1–2 October, rather than official confirmed teams. Manager changes within 7–14 days and new key-player or goalkeeper injuries after prices were set have not been comprehensively cleared.
- Price validity: the odds comparison page does not provide a bookmaker identity or row-level quote time in the retrieved output. Mixed best prices were used individually for break-even tests; no coherent-bookmaker overround or market probability was inferred.
- Movement: no reliable same-bookmaker opening/current price series was obtained, so adverse price movement is unknown. Recheck the PDF skip rules against a fresh executable price.
- Model limits: no adjustment for correlated low scores, red cards, game state, strength of opponents, schedule or selection changes. Expected return is conditional on the model being accurate, not an observed or promised return.
If a candidate is later cleared, use an actual available price, rerun the hurdle and cap positive Kelly at 5% as specified in the PDF. Singles only; record selections, prices, stakes, results and closing prices. The PDF’s 100-bet review point does not itself establish statistical reliability.
Fixture scope
The eight scheduled matches listed by Football Web Pages are covered. Colchester–Port Vale is marked postponed. Barnet–York appears on 27 October, outside today’s scope. No wager has been placed.
Sources and freshness
Web sources were retrieved on 3 October 2026 during preparation. Retrieval time is not a bookmaker quote timestamp. The source documents below allow every fixture, price and team-news statement to be checked.
- Fixtures
- Home / away goal data
- 1X2 odds snapshot
- Chesterfield – Tranmere: Racing Post, updated 2 October, 16:00
- Accrington – Cheltenham: Sports Mole, 1 October
- Crewe – Bristol Rovers: Sports Mole, 1 October
- Exeter – Rotherham: Sports Mole, 2 October
- Gillingham – Newport: Sports Mole, 1 October
- Grimsby – Shrewsbury: Sports Mole, 1 October
- Rochdale – Swindon: Sports Mole, 1 October
- Salford – Fleetwood: Sports Mole, 2 October
- Supplied strategy: Value.pdf — “The Poisson Distribution Value Model (Singles)”. Smoothing is an additional sensitivity check devised for this report.