UEFA Nations League FIS & Confidence Report
Friday 2 October 2026 · Data checked 16:55 BST
Highest-to-lowest FIS ranking
| # | Fixture | FIS leader | Opponent | ΔFIS | Confidence | Research priority | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bosnia & Herzegovina v Sweden19:45 BST | 64.5 | 44.8 | +19.8 | 75/100 | 14.8 | RESEARCH |
| 2 | France v Italy19:45 BST | 59.0 | 47.8 | +11.3 | 75/100 | 8.4 | REVIEW |
| 3 | Belgium v Türkiye19:45 BST | 58.2 | 44.0 | +14.2 | 50/100 | 7.1 | REVIEW |
| 4 | Ukraine v Northern Ireland19:45 BST · Slovakia | 58.2 | 51.5 | +6.7 | 50/100 | 3.4 | WATCH |
| 5 | Hungary v Georgia19:45 BST | 54.5 | 42.5 | +12.0 | 50/100 | 6.0 | REVIEW |
| 6 | Latvia v Montenegro17:00 BST · started | 54.5 | 50.0 | −4.5 | 50/100 | 2.3 | PASS |
| 7 | Faroe Islands v Slovakia19:45 BST | 54.5 | 53.8 | −0.7 | 50/100 | 0.4 | WATCH |
| 8 | Cyprus v Armenia17:00 BST · started | 53.8 | 50.8 | +3.0 | 50/100 | 1.5 | PASS |
| 9 | Kazakhstan v Moldova15:00 BST · started | 50.0 | 38.8 | +11.2 | 50/100 | 5.6 | PASS |
| 10 | Poland v Romania19:45 BST | 50.0 | 42.5 | +7.5 | 50/100 | 3.8 | WATCH |
Ranking is based on the stronger team’s FIS; ties are separated by absolute ΔFIS, then confidence. Research priority = |ΔFIS| × confidence ÷ 100. It is an audit score, not a probability.
Match intelligence
1 · Bosnia & Herzegovina v Sweden
FIS 64.5–44.8 · Confidence 75 · Δ +19.8
Bosnia’s home setting, 4–2 away win in Romania and Edin Džeko’s confirmed retirement match produce the strongest situational profile. Sweden lead the group after two wins, but five players missed the trip through illness and Alexander Isak had already left injured.
Risk: Sweden’s results and Viktor Gyökeres’ scoring run are strong counter-evidence. Emotional narratives can be over-priced.
Research priority only — check confirmed XIs and price.2 · France v Italy
FIS 59.0–47.8 · Confidence 75 · Δ +11.3
France arrive with two 1–0 away wins and now play Zidane’s first home game. Italy recovered from a 2–0 home loss to Belgium by winning 4–1 in Türkiye. France captain Kylian Mbappé is absent after a knee injury.
Risk: France’s rotation depth is strong, while Italy’s Matchday 2 response makes the contextual edge less clean.
Further research — no action without line-ups and value.3 · Belgium v Türkiye
FIS 58.2–44.0 · Confidence 50 · Δ +14.2
Belgium beat Italy 2–0 and were close to taking a point from France. Türkiye have no points after defeats to France and Italy.
Risk: Türkiye’s urgency is high and available evidence does not support stronger information integrity.
Further research — confidence cap prevents qualification.4 · Ukraine v Northern Ireland
FIS 58.2–51.5 · Confidence 50 · Δ +6.7
Both sides have four points and showed defensive control in a scoreless Matchday 2. Northern Ireland defender Dan Ballard returned to his club injured.
Risk: Ukraine’s nominal home fixture is in Slovakia, weakening normal home advantage.
Watch only — neutral-venue uncertainty is material.5 · Hungary v Georgia
FIS 54.5–42.5 · Confidence 50 · Δ +12.0
Hungary’s home setting and recovery profile create the edge. Georgia have taken one point and scored no goals through two matches.
Risk: Sparse verified team news makes the 12-point gap provisional.
Further research — not a selection.6 · Latvia v Montenegro
FIS 50.0–54.5 · Confidence 50 · Δ −4.5
Montenegro started with two comeback wins, both secured late. Latvia’s home and recovery context narrows the gap.
Risk: Late winners can exaggerate sustainable strength; the match had started by publication.
Automatic pre-match pass.7 · Faroe Islands v Slovakia
FIS 53.8–54.5 · Confidence 50 · Δ −0.7
Slovakia’s two wins provide the stronger competitive signal, but Faroe Islands are unbeaten after two draws and receive home/travel credit.
Risk: Near-zero separation means no clear contextual mismatch.
Watch only — no pre-match edge established.8 · Cyprus v Armenia
FIS 53.8–50.8 · Confidence 50 · Δ +3.0
Cyprus’ home/recovery benefits narrowly offset Armenia’s stronger points return.
Risk: Small sample, narrow FIS spread and a match already underway.
Automatic pre-match pass.9 · Kazakhstan v Moldova
FIS 50.0–38.8 · Confidence 50 · Δ +11.2
Kazakhstan’s home/rest profile generated the gap; Moldova’s travel and recovery context lowered their score.
Risk: Limited fresh team news and the match had already started.
Automatic pre-match pass — no retrospective selection.10 · Poland v Romania
FIS 50.0–42.5 · Confidence 50 · Δ +7.5
Poland’s home/recovery setting creates a modest edge. Both sides are winless; Romania’s 4–2 home defeat to Bosnia weighs on the tactical context.
Risk: Weak information integrity, no confirmed XI and no verified price comparison.
Watch only — no executable recommendation.