EFL Trophy Over 1.5 Goals FIS Report
Tuesday 22 September 2026 — all 23 scheduled EFL Trophy fixtures ranked from highest to lowest using the adapted PBT Over 1.5 Goals scoring framework.
Scope note: the uploaded strategy was written for Premier League, Championship, League One and League Two fixtures. EFL Trophy matches, particularly those involving U21 teams, are therefore treated as an adapted application. The Confidence score measures confidence in the available evidence, not the probability of Over 1.5 goals.
Top-ranked fixtures
- Luton Town vs Ipswich Town U21 — FIS 92, Confidence 78
- Barnsley vs Leeds United U21 — FIS 91, Confidence 80
- Accrington Stanley vs Sunderland U21 — FIS 90, Confidence 77
- Leicester City vs Fulham U21 — FIS 89, Confidence 77
- Burton Albion vs Nottingham Forest U21 — FIS 88, Confidence 75
Full FIS ranking
| # | Fixture | FIS | Confidence | Class | Current goals intelligence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luton Town vs Ipswich Town U21 | 92 | 78/100 | Elite | Strongest current goals profile; U21 involvement increases volatility but also scoring potential. |
| 2 | Barnsley vs Leeds United U21 | 91 | 80/100 | Elite | Independent models show a very strong Over 1.5 profile; rotation and youth involvement can increase tempo. |
| 3 | Accrington Stanley vs Sunderland U21 | 90 | 77/100 | Elite | High BTTS support plus academy-side volatility and Accrington’s mixed defensive profile. |
| 4 | Leicester City vs Fulham U21 | 89 | 77/100 | Very Strong | Senior-v-academy matchup with strong current goals support and several routes to two or more goals. |
| 5 | Burton Albion vs Nottingham Forest U21 | 88 | 75/100 | Very Strong | Current models favour an open game and academy fixtures have generally produced a strong goals environment. |
| 6 | Rochdale vs Liverpool U21 | 87 | 74/100 | Very Strong | Liverpool U21 arrive off a 5-1 win and Rochdale have recent scoring form; multiple previews lean toward goals. |
| 7 | Bromley vs Brentford U21 | 87 | 72/100 | Very Strong | U21 involvement boosts attacking and defensive variance; team-news certainty is weaker. |
| 8 | Crewe Alexandra vs Aston Villa U21 | 86 | 74/100 | Very Strong | Crewe’s recent matches repeatedly reached two total goals and the academy opponent adds scoring variance. |
| 9 | Bradford City vs Newcastle United U21 | 86 | 70/100 | Very Strong | Bradford’s congested schedule and Newcastle U21’s recent Trophy win create an open rotation-driven matchup. |
| 10 | Plymouth Argyle vs Crystal Palace U21 | 85 | 75/100 | Very Strong | Senior home attack plus U21 opposition; several current models support multiple goals. |
| 11 | Gillingham vs Cambridge United | 84 | 77/100 | Strong | Positive BTTS signals and enough recent attacking output to support the minimum goals threshold. |
| 12 | Salford City vs Sheffield Wednesday | 84 | 75/100 | Strong | Both teams bring useful recent attacking form and a competitive match setup. |
| 13 | Oldham Athletic vs Fleetwood Town | 83 | 73/100 | Strong | Current models lean toward goals/BTTS and both have enough defensive vulnerability to support two total goals. |
| 14 | Milton Keynes Dons vs Crawley Town | 83 | 74/100 | Strong | External goal models support Over 1.5 and Crawley’s defensive weakness is the main driver. |
| 15 | Cheltenham Town vs Exeter City | 82 | 72/100 | Strong | Several scoreline models project at least two goals, though the evidence is less decisive than the higher-ranked games. |
| 16 | Peterborough United vs Colchester United | 82 | 75/100 | Strong | Current models support Over 1.5; Peterborough’s instability raises variance but this is not an elite profile. |
| 17 | York City vs Rotherham United | 81 | 72/100 | Strong | Current models commonly land around two-to-three total goals; recent meeting history gives a reasonable case. |
| 18 | Wigan Athletic vs Blackpool | 81 | 72/100 | Strong | Both sides bring defensive and form concerns; BTTS models are positive, though attacking reliability is moderate. |
| 19 | Chesterfield vs Port Vale | 81 | 78/100 | Strong | Chesterfield recently won 5-3 in the Trophy and have scored consistently, but some models are more conservative. |
| 20 | Walsall vs Stevenage | 80 | 74/100 | Strong | Enough recent scoring and conceding evidence to meet the minimum threshold, but less goal-heavy than the leading group. |
| 21 | Tranmere Rovers vs Shrewsbury Town | 79 | 70/100 | Watchlist | Recent results are more controlled and the evidence is not strong enough for a main selection. |
| 22 | Swindon Town vs Newport County | 78 | 73/100 | Watchlist | Swindon have recently produced both high- and low-scoring games; the profile falls below the 80-point selection line. |
| 23 | Notts County vs Grimsby Town | 76 | 69/100 | Watchlist | Current models include a low-scoring path and the evidence is not strong enough to clear the strategy threshold. |
Strategy thresholds
- 90–100 Elite: highest-priority candidate, still subject to price/value.
- 85–89 Very Strong: priority if team news and price remain favourable.
- 80–84 Strong: eligible but situational and price risks need checking.
- 75–79 Watchlist: not a main selection without additional evidence.
- Below 75: reject.
Pre-kickoff checks
- Confirm starting XIs, especially U21 teams.
- Re-check key attacking absences and rotation.
- Compare the Over 1.5 price with the model probability before treating any 80+ score as actionable.
- Keep this as a timestamped pre-lineup snapshot and log any later update separately.
Research and educational use. A high FIS is not a guarantee of a winning result. Price/value remains a required part of the strategy.