FA Cup Replay Intelligence — Strategy 5
Second Qualifying Round Replays · Tuesday 22 September 2026 · Research timestamp approximately 07:05 BST
Methodology safeguard: FIS measures the quality and direction of verified contextual evidence relative to each team’s normal baseline. It is not a win probability, expected return or automatic betting selection. Research Priority = |ΔFIS| × information-confidence floor ÷ 100.
Ranked research queue
| # | Fixture | Home FIS | Away FIS | ΔFIS | Info floor | Research Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maidstone United v Cray Wanderers | 67.5 | 55.0 | +12.5 | 75 | 9.4 |
| 2 | Crowborough Athletic v Hampton & Richmond Borough | 64.0 | 50.0 | +14.0 | 50 | 7.0 |
| 3 | Braintree Town v Needham Market | 60.0 | 52.5 | +7.5 | 75 | 5.6 |
| 4 | Dagenham & Redbridge v Waltham Abbey | 55.0 | 65.0 | -10.0 | 50 | 5.0 |
| 5 | Worksop Town v AFC Telford United | 57.5 | 62.5 | -5.0 | 75 | 3.8 |
| 6 | Truro City v Merthyr Town | 60.0 | 55.0 | +5.0 | 75 | 3.8 |
| 7 | Farnham Town v Cirencester Town | 62.5 | 57.5 | +5.0 | 75 | 3.8 |
| 8 | Gainsborough Trinity v Leamington | 57.5 | 52.5 | +5.0 | 50 | 2.5 |
| 9 | Dorking Wanderers v Southall | 60.0 | 55.0 | +5.0 | 50 | 2.5 |
| 10 | Wimborne Town v Weston-super-Mare | 55.0 | 60.0 | -5.0 | 50 | 2.5 |
| 11 | Farnborough v Uxbridge | 57.5 | 52.5 | +5.0 | 50 | 2.5 |
| 12 | Wingate & Finchley v Hemel Hempstead Town | 55.0 | 52.5 | +2.5 | 50 | 1.3 |
| 13 | Chippenham Town v Yate Town | 50.0 | 52.5 | -2.5 | 50 | 1.3 |
Evidence limitation: Confirmed line-ups were not available at the morning research timestamp and robust multi-book odds histories were sparse for several non-league ties. Ratings are deliberately conservative; low-information fixtures are not promoted into strong context-led opinions.
1. Maidstone United v Cray Wanderers — RP 9.4
FIS: Maidstone 67.5 · Cray 55.0 · ΔFIS +12.5 · Information floor 75. Maidstone used a strong side in Saturday’s 1-1 first tie and entered that match as National League South leaders. Cray were a persistent set-piece threat and earned a deserved replay, which prevents a one-sided contextual reading. Adversarial check: Cray’s set-piece threat and the replay’s changed venue could narrow the apparent gap.
2. Crowborough Athletic v Hampton & Richmond Borough — RP 7.0
FIS: Crowborough 64.0 · Hampton 50.0 · ΔFIS +14.0 · Information floor 50. Crowborough drew 3-3 away to a side two steps higher despite playing with ten men and led 3-2 in stoppage time. That is a meaningful current tactical and morale signal, but team-news evidence remains incomplete. Adversarial check: Hampton’s divisional strength and a full-strength replay XI could make the first tie a poor guide.
3. Braintree Town v Needham Market — RP 5.6
FIS: Braintree 60.0 · Needham 52.5 · ΔFIS +7.5 · Information floor 75. The first tie finished 3-3 after Needham scored a late equaliser. Needham’s Liam Pearce was reported with seven goals in four games, so the replay cannot be reduced to divisional hierarchy. Braintree gain the home setting, but the evidence supports scrutiny rather than certainty.
4. Dagenham & Redbridge v Waltham Abbey — RP 5.0
FIS: Dagenham 55.0 · Waltham Abbey 65.0 · ΔFIS -10.0 · Information floor 50. The first tie ended 1-1. Dagenham arrive after consecutive league defeats, while available current form evidence is more favourable to Waltham Abbey. Adversarial check: Dagenham’s higher-level squad and home advantage may be underrepresented by short-run form.
5–7. Medium research priority
Worksop Town v AFC Telford United: FIS 57.5–62.5, ΔFIS -5.0, information floor 75, RP 3.8. Saturday’s 2-2 showed Telford’s early control but Worksop earned the replay and now host.
Truro City v Merthyr Town: FIS 60.0–55.0, ΔFIS +5.0, information floor 75, RP 3.8. Truro forced the replay with a stoppage-time equaliser in a 1-1 draw and now return to Truro City Stadium.
Farnham Town v Cirencester Town: FIS 62.5–57.5, ΔFIS +5.0, information floor 75, RP 3.8. Farnham led twice and hit the woodwork in the 2-2 first tie, but Cirencester also created late danger.
8–13. Lower-information queue
Gainsborough Trinity v Leamington: RP 2.5. First tie 1-1; home advantage flips to Gainsborough, but verified availability information is limited.
Dorking Wanderers v Southall: RP 2.5. Replay confirmed; current high-tier team-news depth is limited.
Wimborne Town v Weston-super-Mare: RP 2.5. Weston had won the previous five FA Cup meetings before Saturday’s 1-1; Wimborne now host.
Farnborough v Uxbridge: RP 2.5. Home replay confirmed by Farnborough, but insufficient high-tier availability evidence for stronger ratings.
Wingate & Finchley v Hemel Hempstead Town: RP 1.3. First tie 1-1; current evidence does not support a material contextual separation.
Chippenham Town v Yate Town: RP 1.3. First tie 0-0; Yate’s league position is stronger, but the contextual evidence is too thin for a strong thesis.
Strategy 5 framework
Each team was assessed independently across Stakes & incentives (18%), Availability & lineup leverage (22%), Recovery/travel/rotation (15%), Tactical & managerial fit (15%), Club environment (10%), Information integrity (10%) and Market intelligence (10%). Category ratings map to 0, 25, 50, 75 or 100. Extreme ratings require strong, current evidence.
Fresh sources
- Football Web Pages — full replay fixture list
- Needham Market — Braintree 3-3 report
- Crowborough Today — Hampton 3-3 report
- Dagenham & Redbridge — replay confirmation
- Farnborough — Uxbridge replay guide
- Farnham Town — fixtures/results
- Cray v Maidstone — first-tie report
- Truro City — Merthyr 1-1 report
- Weston-super-Mare — Wimborne replay preview
- Worksop Town — Telford 2-2 report
Prepared 22 September 2026. This is analytical research, not a guarantee of profitability or a recommendation to wager. Prices and team information can change before kick-off.