FA Cup Over 1.5 Goals Intelligence — 22 September 2026

PBT English Goals Intelligence. Fresh analysis of all 13 Emirates FA Cup Second Round Qualifying replays scheduled for Tuesday 22 September 2026, using only the uploaded PBT Over 1.5 Goals Strategy. Data checked around 07:05 UK time.

Model: Team O1.5 profile 25%; home/away goal profile 20%; recent 5–10 form 15%; scoring/conceding consistency 15%; xG/xGA 10%; competition environment 5%; situational factors 5%; price/value 5%. Minimum 80; priority 85+; elite 90+. Hard rejection filters override the score.

Ranked PBT board

Top-match evidence

1. Crowborough Athletic v Hampton & Richmond — 91/100 Elite

The first tie finished 3-3. Crowborough’s recent six-match sample averaged 4.17 total goals with 83% BTTS, while a current combined statistical sample showed Over 1.5 landing in 100% of the relevant recent matches. This is the strongest raw goals profile on the replay card. The price component remains conditional because a sufficiently reliable live O1.5 quote was not available in the morning check.

2. Gainsborough Trinity v Leamington — 88/100 Very Strong

The first tie was 1-1. Gainsborough’s recent five include 1-1, 0-2, 2-4, 0-3 and 1-2; Leamington have produced six consecutive Over 1.5 matches in one current form source. Current-season modelling puts the teams’ O1.5 tendencies around the high-80s. Morning O1.5 price found: 1.18 (84.7% implied), so the value margin is narrow and should be rechecked before staking.

3. Dorking Wanderers v Southall — 87/100 Very Strong

The first meeting ended 2-2. Dorking’s recent sequence includes 2-2, 3-3, 3-3 and 4-1, creating a strong multi-goal environment. A pre-match model for the first tie estimated Over 1.5 at 87.78%. Southall’s lower recent hit rate prevents an elite score, and live price still needs verification.

4. Farnborough v Uxbridge — 85/100 Very Strong

The first tie finished 2-2. Uxbridge have averaged roughly 2.2 goals scored per match in a current-season dataset, while Farnborough’s recent attack has been less consistent. The replay still clears the 85 priority line, but the price must compensate for Farnborough’s weaker scoring reliability.

5. Worksop Town v AFC Telford United — 84/100 Strong

The first tie finished 2-2. Worksop’s current-season data shows 1.80 scored and 1.33 conceded per match; AFC Telford show 0.92 scored and 1.38 conceded. A morning O1.5 quote of 1.25 implies 80.0%, leaving a modest potential edge against the PBT assessment. This is the clearest price-checkable Strong selection on the card.

6. Braintree Town v Needham Market — 82/100 Strong

The first tie was a 3-3 draw and Braintree’s last six averaged 3.67 total goals with 83% BTTS. Needham’s broader current O1.5 rate is around 63%, however, which sharply limits the Team O1.5 component under the PBT scoring guide. It qualifies numerically but needs a genuine price edge.

7. Wingate & Finchley v Hemel Hempstead Town — 81/100 Strong

The first tie ended 1-1. Both teams have enough recent two-goal matches to remain above the main-selection floor, but several 0-0 and low-event results reduce the consistency and venue-profile scores. Price confirmation is essential.

8. Truro City v Merthyr Town — 80/100 Strong

The first tie ended 1-1. Truro’s recent six average 2.5 total goals and Merthyr’s recent six around 3.0, but both have also produced several one-goal/low-event matches. This just clears the main threshold and should only be used if the market offers a clear edge.

Hard-filter rejects

Farnham v Cirencester: reject despite the first tie’s 2-2 score because Cirencester’s recent sequence contains too many 0-0/one-goal outcomes. Maidstone v Cray: Cray fail the 60% recent O1.5 floor. Chippenham v Yate: first tie 0-0 and Yate fail the recent threshold. Wimborne v Weston-super-Mare: Wimborne’s run contains multiple 0-0s and fails the threshold. Dagenham v Waltham Abbey: Dagenham’s recent run includes repeated 0-1/1-0 matches and fails the 60% floor.

Uncertainty and data quality

Reliable xG and confirmed-line-up coverage is sparse at this level of the English pyramid. Missing xG was not invented; the xG/xGA component was scored conservatively. Confirmed line-ups are normally unavailable this early in the day, so the situational component has additional uncertainty. FA Cup competition-wide data is supportive of goals, but the strategy assigns competition environment only 5% and it never rescues a fixture that fails the team-level hard filters.

Sources

• The Football Association — official FA Cup fixtures
• Sports Mole match/form pages for Crowborough-Hampton, Dorking-Southall, Gainsborough-Leamington, Farnham-Cirencester, Truro-Merthyr, Wimborne-Weston and Chippenham-Yate
• SportyTrader current form pages for Braintree-Needham and Worksop-Telford
• Football Web Pages — Dagenham 2026/27 results
• ODDSLOT — morning Over 1.5 price snapshots for Worksop-Telford and Gainsborough-Leamington

Research and educational analysis only. Historical/statistical patterns do not guarantee future results. Prices can move after publication.