Over 0.5 First-Half Goals — Revised Strategy Screen
Venue-sample rule waived at request · exploratory early-season analysis
Executive decision
Rule adjustment and retained controls
This rerun waives only the requirement for eight prior home League One matches for the home side and eight prior away League One matches for the away side. The retained controls are the 70%–under-80% candidate band, the fixed three-percentage-point uncertainty buffer, a two-sided no-vig first-half market test, a minimum three-point price edge, and the Football Intelligence Score as a contextual control.
| Rule | Revised treatment | Effect |
|---|---|---|
| Eight venue-specific prior league matches | Waived at request | The formula may run with zero venue observations. |
| 12 overall prior league matches per side | Recorded as unmet governance condition | The exercise is exploratory rather than deployment-ready. |
| Candidate band: 70% ≤ pRaw < 80% | Retained | Every fixture fails below the 70% floor. |
| Conservative buffer and no-vig value test | Retained | No price test is reached. |
| Football Intelligence Score | Retained | Not reached because there is no candidate-band pass. |
Inputs and calculation
Before this matchday, the League One data snapshot contains 13 completed 2026/27 league matches, with five 0–0 half-times. The descriptive league Over 0.5 first-half-goal rate is therefore L = 8 / 13 = 61.5384%. Every scheduled home side has zero prior home league matches and every scheduled away side has zero prior away league matches because their sole preceding League One fixture occurred at the opposite venue.
L = 8 / 13 = 0.615384 h = 0; nH = 0; a = 0; nA = 0 pH = (h + 6 × L) / (nH + 6) = 0.615384 pA = (a + 6 × L) / (nA + 6) = 0.615384 pRaw = (pH + pA) / 2 = 0.615384 (61.5384%) pConservative = pRaw − 0.03 = 0.585384 (58.5384%) fairOddsConservative = 1 / pConservative = 1.708280
Fixture screen
| Kick-off BST | Fixture | nH / nA | pRaw | pConservative | Candidate band | Market / FIS | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | Doncaster Rovers v Barnsley | 0 / 0 | 61.5% | 58.5% | Fail — below 70% | Not reached | Pass |
| 12:30 | Luton Town v Notts County | 0 / 0 | 61.5% | 58.5% | Fail — below 70% | Not reached | Pass |
| 15:00 | AFC Wimbledon v Reading | 0 / 0 | 61.5% | 58.5% | Fail — below 70% | Not reached | Pass |
| 15:00 | Bromley v Cambridge United | 0 / 0 | 61.5% | 58.5% | Fail — below 70% | Not reached | Pass |
| 15:00 | Leicester City v Burton Albion | 0 / 0 | 61.5% | 58.5% | Fail — below 70% | Not reached | Pass |
| 15:00 | Milton Keynes Dons v Huddersfield Town | 0 / 0 | 61.5% | 58.5% | Fail — below 70% | Not reached | Pass |
| 15:00 | Peterborough United v Mansfield Town | 0 / 0 | 61.5% | 58.5% | Fail — below 70% | Not reached | Pass |
| 15:00 | Stevenage v Oxford United | 0 / 0 | 61.5% | 58.5% | Fail — below 70% | Not reached | Pass |
| 15:00 | Stockport County v Blackpool | 0 / 0 | 61.5% | 58.5% | Fail — below 70% | Not reached | Pass |
| 15:00 | Wigan Athletic v Leyton Orient | 0 / 0 | 61.5% | 58.5% | Fail — below 70% | Not reached | Pass |
| 15:00 | Wycombe Wanderers v Plymouth Argyle | 0 / 0 | 61.5% | 58.5% | Fail — below 70% | Not reached | Pass |
Market-data note
A public full-match Over/Under 0.5 coupon was available, but it was not the required first-half Over/Under 0.5 market. It has therefore not been substituted for the two-sided first-half price check. In any event, the first-half market check is not reached here because all fixtures fail the retained pRaw candidate floor.
Sources
Fixtures: Football Web Pages and The Guardian. League table and match details: SoccerStats; half-time data: SoccerStats. Full-match coupon distinction: Oddschecker. Strategy methodology: user-supplied League One Over 0.5 First-Half Goals Strategy Version 2.1.